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Does war influence individual expectations?

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  • Bozzoli, Carlos
  • Brück, Tilman
  • Muhumuza, Tony

Abstract

We analyse the effect of mass violent conflict on individual expectations in Northern Uganda. We find that the expectations of the future economic situation are negatively affected by recent conflict while the effect on broadly defined welfare is less robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Bozzoli, Carlos & Brück, Tilman & Muhumuza, Tony, 2011. "Does war influence individual expectations?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 288-291.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:3:p:288-291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.08.011
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    1. Willis, Robert J & Rosen, Sherwin, 1979. "Education and Self-Selection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 7-36, October.
    2. Clionadh Raleigh & rew Linke & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Joakim Karlsen, 2010. "Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 651-660, September.
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    4. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    5. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
    6. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2009. "Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(31), pages 817-875.
    7. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Heidi Kaila & Saurabh Singhal & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Do fences make good neighbours?: Evidence from an insurgency in India," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-158, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Travers Barclay Child & Elena Nikolova, 2017. "War and Social Attitudes," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 2017-5, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    3. Carlos Bozzoli & Tilman Brück & Tony Muhumuza, 2012. "Movers or Stayers? Understanding the Drivers of IDP Camp Decongestion during Post-Conflict Recovery in Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1197, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Tilman Brück, 2012. ""Jobs under Fire": Beschäftigung in von Konflikt bedrohten und fragilen Staaten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(3), pages 125-129.
    5. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2013. "Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 217-252, September.
    6. Yamamura, Eiji, 2012. "Natural disasters and their long-term effect on happiness: the case of the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake," MPRA Paper 37505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shelley X Liu, 2022. "How war-related deprivation affects political participation: Evidence from education loss in Liberia," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 353-366, May.
    8. Bove, Vincenzo & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2014. "Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 113-131.
    9. Tilman Brück & Fernanda Llussá & José Tavares, 2010. "Perceptions, Expectations, and Entrepreneurship: The Role of Extreme Events," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1093, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Marco d’Errico & Donato Romano & Rebecca Pietrelli, 2018. "Household resilience to food insecurity: evidence from Tanzania and Uganda," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(4), pages 1033-1054, August.
    11. Yamamura, Eiji, 2013. "Atomic bombs and the long-run effect on trust: Experiences in Hiroshima and Nagasaki," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-24.
    12. Travers Barclay Child & Elena Nikolova, 2020. "War and social attitudes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 152-171, March.
    13. Philip Verwimp & Patricia Justino & Tilman Brück, 2018. "The Microeconomics of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 280, Households in Conflict Network.
    14. Brück, Tilman & Llussá, Fernanda & Tavares, José A., 2011. "Entrepreneurship: The role of extreme events," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 78-88.
    15. Sarah Bridges & Douglas Scott, 2022. "Early Childhood Health During Conflict: The Legacy of the Lord’s Resistance Army in Northern Uganda," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 694-718, August.
    16. Akisato Suzuki & Djordje Stefanovic & Neophytos Loizides, 2021. "Displacement and the expectation of political violence: Evidence from Bosnia," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(5), pages 561-579, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Expectations; Northern Uganda; War; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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