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Quantifying U.S. aluminum in-use stocks and their relationship with economic output

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  • McMillan, Colin A.
  • Moore, Michael R.
  • Keoleian, Gregory A.
  • Bulkley, Jonathan W.

Abstract

A dynamic material flow analysis model is developed to quantify aluminum in-use stocks and old scrap recycling and recovery in the United States for the period of 1900 to 2007. The total in-use aluminum stock in 2007 is estimated as 93Â million metric tons, which represents approximately 34% of the cumulative apparent consumption since 1900. Alternately, since 1900 nearly 40% of the cumulative discarded aluminum has not been recycled for domestic use in the U.S. or for export to foreign consumers. Statistical time series analysis is used to explore the relationship between model results of in-use stocks and gross domestic product (GDP). Unlike most previous studies of material consumption and economic activity, which ignore the statistical properties of time series data to the detriment of model estimation and inference, data stationarity is explicitly evaluated through unit root testing and model specification is adjusted accordingly. The annual percentage change in GDP is found to have a large and significant association with the annual percentage change in net additions to in-use stocks. Model sensitivity and uncertainty are quantified through the application of the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test and alternate specifications of product lifetime probability density functions.

Suggested Citation

  • McMillan, Colin A. & Moore, Michael R. & Keoleian, Gregory A. & Bulkley, Jonathan W., 2010. "Quantifying U.S. aluminum in-use stocks and their relationship with economic output," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2606-2613, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:69:y:2010:i:12:p:2606-2613
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    2. Sverdrup, Harald U. & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala & Koca, Deniz, 2015. "Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 139-154.
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    4. Ciacci, Luca & Chen, Weiqiang & Passarini, Fabrizio & Eckelman, Matthew & Vassura, Ivano & Morselli, Luciano, 2013. "Historical evolution of anthropogenic aluminum stocks and flows in Italy," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Chen, Wei-Qiang & Graedel, T.E., 2012. "Dynamic analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in the United States: 1900–2009," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 92-102.
    6. Li, Shupeng & Wang, Zhe & Yue, Qiang & Zhang, Tingan, 2022. "Analysis of the quantity and spatial characterization of aluminum in-use stocks in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Fu, Xinkai & Ueland, Stian M. & Olivetti, Elsa, 2017. "Econometric modeling of recycled copper supply," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 219-226.
    8. Wang, Minxi & Chen, Wu & Zhou, Yang & Li, Xin, 2017. "Assessment of potential copper scrap in China and policy recommendation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 235-244.
    9. Zhang, Chao & Chen, Wei-Qiang & Liu, Gang & Zhu, Da-Jian, 2017. "Economic Growth and the Evolution of Material Cycles: An Analytical Framework Integrating Material Flow and Stock Indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 265-274.
    10. Chen, Wei-Qiang & Shi, Lei, 2012. "Analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in mainland China from 1950 to 2009: Exploring the dynamics driving the rapid increase in China's aluminum production," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 18-28.
    11. Zhang, Tao & Liu, Lili & Lv, Xiaodong, 2019. "The change in the material stock of urban infrastructures in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 24-34.
    12. Li, Yun & Yue, Qiang & He, Junhao & Zhao, Feng & Wang, Heming, 2020. "When will the arrival of China's secondary aluminum era?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Maung, Kyaw Nyunt & Yoshida, Tomoharu & Liu, Gang & Lwin, Cherry Myo & Muller, Daniel B. & Hashimoto, Seiji, 2017. "Assessment of secondary aluminum reserves of nations," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 34-41.

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