IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v65y2020ics0301420719306737.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When will the arrival of China's secondary aluminum era?

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Yun
  • Yue, Qiang
  • He, Junhao
  • Zhao, Feng
  • Wang, Heming

Abstract

As the consumption of aluminum products in China continues to increase in recent years, the in-use stock of aluminum products is increasing. With the service life of aluminum products about to run out and the shortage of bauxite resources in China, recycling domestic aluminum scrap to produce secondary aluminum will become an inevitable trend. With reference to the development status of secondary aluminum in developed countries and the scenario we set, the future production and stock ratio of secondary aluminum in China are predicted. According to our selected scenarios, the research results include: (1) China's primary aluminum will reach its peak around 2025, and its production capacity will gradually decrease with the replacement of secondary aluminum in China; (2) With the increasing domestic aluminum stocks, China began to enter the era of scrap aluminum recycling after 2020, and the peak supply of aluminum scrap lagged behind the peak consumption of aluminum for 10–20 years. (3) The in-use stock of aluminum will peak around 2040 and the in-use stock of secondary aluminum will be saturated around 2060. (4) With the recycling of aluminum scrap, secondary aluminum will break through the production level of 10 million tons in 2023. The level of secondary aluminum in China will exceed the production level of primary aluminum for the first time around 2035. After 2050, secondary aluminum production will account for more than 60% of the total output and the secondary aluminum stock ratio (SASR) will account for more than 70%. Thus, there will be a rapid shifting in production capacity from primary to secondary routes. In this case, the relevant policies should pay more attention to the recovery of aluminum scrap and the production of secondary aluminum. As China's aluminum will maintain this strong consumption momentum and the shortage of bauxite in the country, research on China's future secondary aluminum will become increasingly important.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Yun & Yue, Qiang & He, Junhao & Zhao, Feng & Wang, Heming, 2020. "When will the arrival of China's secondary aluminum era?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:65:y:2020:i:c:s0301420719306737
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420719306737
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101573?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yue, Qiang & Wang, Heming & Gao, Chengkang & Du, Tao & Li, Mingjun & Lu, Zhongwu, 2016. "Analysis of iron in-use stocks in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 315-322.
    2. McMillan, Colin A. & Moore, Michael R. & Keoleian, Gregory A. & Bulkley, Jonathan W., 2010. "Quantifying U.S. aluminum in-use stocks and their relationship with economic output," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2606-2613, October.
    3. Liu, Lei & Wang, Ke & Wang, Shanshan & Zhang, Ruiqin & Tang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 382-396.
    4. Zongguo Wen & Chenkai Zhang & Xiaoli Ji & Yanyan Xue, 2015. "Urban Mining's Potential to Relieve China's Coming Resource Crisis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 19(6), pages 1091-1102, December.
    5. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
    6. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    7. Chen, Wei-Qiang & Graedel, T.E., 2012. "Dynamic analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in the United States: 1900–2009," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 92-102.
    8. Li, Qiang & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Huiquan & He, Peng, 2017. "CO2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 225-235.
    9. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eheliyagoda, Disna & Li, Jinhui & Geng, Yong & Zeng, Xianlai, 2022. "The role of China's aluminum recycling on sustainable resource and emission pathways," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Li, Shupeng & Wang, Zhe & Yue, Qiang & Zhang, Tingan, 2022. "Analysis of the quantity and spatial characterization of aluminum in-use stocks in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Shen, Angxing & Zhang, Jihong, 2024. "Technologies for CO2 emission reduction and low-carbon development in primary aluminum industry in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    4. Vignesh, B. Ram & Saravanan, M. & Marimuthu, P., 2021. "Sustainability analysis on magnsium ore as a replacement in the applications of mining environment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Shupeng & Wang, Zhe & Yue, Qiang & Zhang, Tingan, 2022. "Analysis of the quantity and spatial characterization of aluminum in-use stocks in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Cao, Zhi & Shen, Lei & Liu, Litao & Zhao, Jianan & Zhong, Shuai & Kong, Hanxiao & Sun, Yanzhi, 2017. "Estimating the in-use cement stock in China: 1920–2013," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 21-31.
    3. Wang, Minxi & Chen, Wu & Zhou, Yang & Li, Xin, 2017. "Assessment of potential copper scrap in China and policy recommendation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 235-244.
    4. Michael Greenstone & Rema Hanna, 2014. "Environmental Regulations, Air and Water Pollution, and Infant Mortality in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3038-3072, October.
    5. Song, Tao & Zheng, Tingguo & Tong, Lianjun, 2008. "An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: A panel cointegration approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 381-392, September.
    6. Giedrė Lapinskienė & Kęstutis Peleckis & Neringa Slavinskaitė, 2017. "Energy consumption, economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union countries," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 1082-1097, November.
    7. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Driving Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the Impact from Kyoto Protocol," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 190, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Bradford David F. & Fender Rebecca A & Shore Stephen H. & Wagner Martin, 2005. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Exploring a Fresh Specification," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, June.
    9. Ghimire, Narishwar & Woodward, Richard T., 2013. "Under- and over-use of pesticides: An international analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 73-81.
    10. Jha, Raghbendra & Murthy, K. V. Bhanu, 2003. "An inverse global environmental Kuznets curve," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 352-368, June.
    11. Sebri, Maamar, 2009. "La Zone Méditerranéenne Face à la Pollution de L’air : Une Investigation Econométrique [The Mediterranean Zone in front of Air pollution: an Econometric Investigation]," MPRA Paper 32382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Perry Sadorsky, 2018. "How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1479-1494, March.
    13. Daniel Fiorino, 2011. "Explaining national environmental performance: approaches, evidence, and implications," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 44(4), pages 367-389, November.
    14. Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Montini, Anna & Zoboli, Roberto, 2006. "Municipal Waste Production, Economic Drivers, and 'New' Waste Policies: EKC Evidence from Italian Regional and Provincial Panel Data," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12053, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    15. Saidi Kais & Ben Mbarek Mounir, 2017. "Causal interactions between environmental degradation, renewable energy, nuclear energy and real GDP: a dynamic panel data approach," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 51-67, March.
    16. Anastasios Xepapadeas & Esma Amri, 1998. "Some Empirical Indications of the Relationship Between Environmental Quality and Economic Development," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 93-106, January.
    17. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Sugata Ghosh & Eugenia Vella, 2016. "Technological Progress, Time Perception and Environmental Sustainability," Working Papers 2016002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    18. Lange, Steffen & Pohl, Johanna & Santarius, Tilman, 2020. "Digitalization and energy consumption. Does ICT reduce energy demand?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    19. Zhenkai Yang & Mei-Chih Wang & Tsangyao Chang & Wing-Keung Wong & Fangjhy Li, 2022. "Which Factors Determine CO 2 Emissions in China? Trade Openness, Financial Development, Coal Consumption, Economic Growth or Urbanization: Quantile Granger Causality Test," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-18, March.
    20. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J.R. Elliott & Jing Zhang, 2011. "Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, And The Environment: Evidence From Chinese Cities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 121-138, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:65:y:2020:i:c:s0301420719306737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.