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An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture

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  • Ollier, Maxime
  • Jayet, Pierre-Alain
  • Humblot, Pierre

Abstract

Farmers facing a durable change in climate conditions may autonomously adapt through the intensive margin, the extensive margin, or through the adoption of new practices. Based on a coupling between a microeconomic model of European agriculture (AROPAj) and a crop model (STICS), this article investigates the potential distributional impacts of farm-level autonomous adaptation to climate change within the European Union (EU-27). Considering the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the second report on emission scenario of the fifth assessment report (SRES AR5), we implement two levels of autonomous adaptation for farmers, and three time horizons. The results indicate that ceteris paribus, climate change may lead in terms of social welfare to a slightly worse situation in the middle term and a slightly better situation in the long term with respect to the present. However, the ranking of agents in the distribution is importantly impacted. Our Shapley inequality decomposition shows that income inequality is largely explained by the region and type of farming. Climate change barely affects the marginal contribution of these two characteristics to overall income inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Ollier, Maxime & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & Humblot, Pierre, 2024. "An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:222:y:2024:i:c:s0921800924001186
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108221
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European agriculture; Climate change; Autonomous adaptation; Income inequality; Inequality decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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