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What threatens stock market returns under the COVID-19 crisis in China: the pandemic itself or the media hype around it?

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  • Xin Li
  • Chi-Wei Su
  • Zheng Li
  • Muhammad Umar

Abstract

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic received widespread media attention, and global financial markets reacted strongly to the pandemic shocks. It is, therefore, worthwhile to detect the influence of media hype about COVID-19 and the pandemic index on stock market price returns. Utilising a newly developed non-linear ARDL model, our empirical outcomes show that the direct effect of the COVID-19 pandemic index on sectoral stock market returns is generally weak and significant only in the Energy, Financials, and Health Care sectors. In contrast to the direct effect of the COVID-19, we find that the media hype index pronouncedly affects sectoral stock market returns, with a significant negative effect in most sectors and with asymmetry. The dynamic asymmetric causality test has been applied for robustness check, where there is time-varying asymmetric causality from media hype to sectoral stock markets. These findings help investors with different investment horizons in emerging markets understand sector-level stock price dynamics and formulate investment strategies during the pandemic. Furthermore, market regulators should consider asymmetric effects over time when formulating strategies and making policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Li & Chi-Wei Su & Zheng Li & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "What threatens stock market returns under the COVID-19 crisis in China: the pandemic itself or the media hype around it?," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 2106272-210, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:reroxx:v:36:y:2023:i:2:p:2106272
    DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2022.2106272
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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Lihui & Li, Xin & Lee, Cheng-Wen & Spulbăr, Cristi, 2024. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of artificial intelligence on renewable energy under climate policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Xin Wang & Maurice Vergeer, 2024. "Effect of Social Media Posts on Stock Market During COVID-19 Infodemic: An Agenda Diffusion Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440241, January.
    3. Waqas Shair & Dr. Farhat Rasul & Sidra Raza & Dr. Ayesha Qamar, 2023. "Panic News and media Hype Effects on Stock Market Returns and Volatility amid Infectious Diseases Turmoil," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(4), pages 79-87.

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