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The COVID-19 and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from South Korea

Author

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  • Pyo, Dong-Jin

    (Changwon National University)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the number of coronavirus cases on regime-switching in stock return volatility. This study documents the empirical evidence that the COVID-19 cases had an asymmetric effect on the regime of stock return volatility. When the stock return is in the low volatility regime, the probability of switching to the high volatility regime in the next trading day increases as the number of cumulative cases increases. In contrast, in the high volatility regime, the effect of cumulative cases on the transition probability is not statistically significant. This study also documents the evidence that the government measures against the pandemic contribute to promoting the high volatility regime of the KOSPI during the pandemic. Besides, this study projects future stock prices through the Monte Carlo simulation based on the estimated parameters and the predicted number of the COVID-19 new cases. Under a scenario where the number of new cases rapidly increases, stock price indices in Korea are expected to be in a downward trend over the next three months. On the other hand, under the moderate scenario and the best scenario, the stock indices are likely to continue to rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Pyo, Dong-Jin, 2021. "The COVID-19 and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from South Korea," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 25(2), pages 205-230, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0396
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2021.25.2.396
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    Cited by:

    1. Emre BULUT & Ahmed İhsan ŞİMŞEK, 2023. "The Relationship Between the Stock Market Volatility, Liquidity, Exchange Rate Return, and Stock Return During the COVID-19 Period: The case of the BIST 100 Index," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 121-135, June.
    2. Peng, Yi-Ting & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Xiang, Feiyun, 2024. "Has the COVID-19 pandemic shock transmitted to the u.s. stock market: Evidence using bootstrap (A)symmetric fourier granger causality test in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Annika Fischer & Noel Opala & Svend Reuse & Martin Svoboda, 2022. "The Impact of the Corona Crisis on the Worldwide Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis with Cross National Event Study Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 162-172, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Social Distancing; Stock Return Volatility; Regime-Switching Regression; Monte Carlo Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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