IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v3y2023i1d10.1007_s43546-022-00401-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determining the return volatility of the Ghana stock exchange before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the exponential GARCH model

Author

Listed:
  • Kwadwo Boateng Prempeh

    (Sunyani Technical University)

  • Joseph Magnus Frimpong

    (KNUST School of Business)

  • Newman Amaning

    (Sunyani Technical University)

Abstract

In this paper, we utilise daily stock returns for the Ghanaian equity market (GSE) to examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on market volatility. We take return volatility from 2nd January, 2018, to 31st December, 2021, and split it into two periods—the pre-COVID-19 period and the COVID-19 period. Utilising the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, we discovered leverage effects in all observed periods. Additionally, the research indicates that the COVID-19 period experienced high volatility with a transient volatility persistence. Furthermore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, positive shocks had a more significant impact on the volatility of the GSE’s returns than negative news of comparable magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwadwo Boateng Prempeh & Joseph Magnus Frimpong & Newman Amaning, 2023. "Determining the return volatility of the Ghana stock exchange before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the exponential GARCH model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:3:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00401-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-022-00401-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-022-00401-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-022-00401-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mei-Ping Chen & Chien-Chiang Lee & Yu-Hui Lin & Wen-Yi Chen, 2018. "Did the S.A.R.S. epidemic weaken the integration of Asian stock markets? Evidence from smooth time-varying cointegration analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 908-926, January.
    2. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Buhagiar, Ranier & Cortis, Dominic & Newall, Philip W.S., 2018. "Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 85-93.
    4. Kauffman, Kyle & Weerapana, Akila, 2006. "The Impact of AIDS-Related News on Exchange Rates in South Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 349-368, January.
    5. Bash, Ahmad & Alsaifi, Khaled, 2019. "Fear from uncertainty: An event study of Khashoggi and stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 54-58.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Kowalewski, Oskar & Śpiewanowski, Piotr, 2020. "Stock market response to potash mine disasters," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    9. Letife Özdemir & Ercan OZEN & Simon Grima & Inna RomÄ nova, 2021. "Determining the Return Volatility of Major Stock Markets Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Applying the EGARCH Model," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 68(4), pages 405-419, October.
    10. Ichev, Riste & Marinč, Matej, 2018. "Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 153-166.
    11. Jordan Ngu Chuan Yong & Sayyed Mahdi Ziaei & Kenneth R. Szulczyk, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Return Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(3), pages 191-204, March.
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2021. "COVID-19 lockdowns, stimulus packages, travel bans, and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    13. Daly, Kevin & Batten, Jonathan A. & Mishra, Anil V. & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2019. "Contagion risk in global banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Jordan Ngu Chuan Yong & Sayyed Mahdi Ziaei & Kenneth R Szulczyk, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Return Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(3), pages 191-204.
    15. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    16. Chun-Da Chen & Chin-Chun Chen & Wan-Wei Tang & Bor-Yi Huang, 2009. "The positive and negative impacts of the sars outbreak:a case of the Taiwan industries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(1), pages 281-293, September.
    17. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    18. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    19. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    20. Mian Sajid Nazir & Hassan Younus & Ahmad Kaleem & Zeshan Anwar, 2014. "Impact of political events on stock market returns: empirical evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 60-78, May.
    21. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and financial volatility: 40 days of fasting and fear," Papers 2003.04005, arXiv.org.
    22. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender, 2020. "Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    23. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Foglia, Matteo & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Angelini, Eliana, 2021. "Feverish sentiment and global equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1088-1108.
    24. Gubareva, Mariya, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on liquidity of emerging market bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    25. Mian Sajid Nazir & Hassan Younus & Ahmad Kaleem & Zeshan Anwar, 2014. "Impact of political events on stock market returns: empirical evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 60-78, May.
    26. Shanaev, Savva & Ghimire, Binam, 2019. "Is all politics local? Regional political risk in Russia and the panel of stock returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 70-82.
    27. Lin Wang & Ali M Kutan, 2013. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Stock Markets: Evidence from Japan and the US," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(4), pages 672-686, December.
    28. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Political uncertainty, COVID-19 pandemic and stock market volatility transmission," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Kashif & Fatima Sultana & Muhammad Atif & Muhammad Aslam & Ammara Sarwar & Umar Farooq Awan & Muhammad Wasif Hanif, 2023. "COVID-19 Attack on Stock Markets: Event Study and Panel Data Analysis of Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC)," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 50-63.
    2. Alomari, Mohammad & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Power, David M., 2022. "Infectious diseases tracking and sectoral stock market returns: A quantile regression analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Fabio Pisani & Giorgia Russo, 2021. "Sustainable Finance and COVID-19: The Reaction of ESG Funds to the 2020 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Sherif, Mohamed, 2020. "The impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on faith-based investments: An original analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    7. José Antonio Núñez-Mora & Roberto Joaquín Santillán-Salgado & Mario Iván Contreras-Valdez, 2022. "COVID Asymmetric Impact on the Risk Premium of Developed and Emerging Countries’ Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-36, April.
    8. Peng, Yi-Ting & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Xiang, Feiyun, 2024. "Has the COVID-19 pandemic shock transmitted to the u.s. stock market: Evidence using bootstrap (A)symmetric fourier granger causality test in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Herjuna Qobush Izzahdi & Ani Wilujeng Suryani, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccination, Government Strict Policy and Capital Market Volatility: Evidence from ASEAN Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 117-135.
    10. Terver Kumeka & Oluwatosin Adeniyi, 2023. "Stock markets response to contagious disease: Evidence on the impact of COVID‐19 in the three worst hit African economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4476-4499, October.
    11. Müller, Fernanda Maria & Santos, Samuel Solgon & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2023. "A description of the COVID-19 outbreak role in financial risk forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. He, Changli & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1999. "Higher-order dependence in the general Power ARCH process and a special case," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 315, Stockholm School of Economics.
    13. Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Xidonas, Panos & Goutte, Stephane & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2024. "Introducing the GVAR-GARCH model: Evidence from financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Ender Su & John Bilson, 2011. "Trading asymmetric trend and volatility by leverage trend GARCH in Taiwan stock index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3891-3905.
    15. Rituparna Sen & Pulkit Mehrotra, 2016. "Modeling Jumps and Volatility of the Indian Stock Market Using High-Frequency Data," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 137-150, June.
    16. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    17. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kambouroudis, Dimos S. & Tsakou, Katerina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2018. "Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: The role of oil price shocks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 376-391.
    18. Turan Bali & Panayiotis Theodossiou, 2007. "A conditional-SGT-VaR approach with alternative GARCH models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 241-267, April.
    19. Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Olumuyiwa G. Yinusa & Ayinde Taofeek Olusola & Saban Celik, 2011. "Global Economic Crisis And Stock Markets Efficiency: Evidence From Selected Africa Countries," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 139-169.
    20. Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2009. "Asymmetric GARCH and the financial crisis: a preliminary study," MPRA Paper 27939, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Stock market returns; Volatility; GSE; Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:3:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s43546-022-00401-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.