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Market risk modeling with option-implied covariances and score-driven dynamics

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  • Herrera, Rodrigo
  • Piña, Marco

Abstract

In this paper we make use of option-implied volatilities to build a time-varying implied correlation matrix. Then, we use this matrix to estimate jointly both the covariance matrix of the returns and the implied covariance matrix dynamics. Finally, we do a backtest and show that the proposed model can effectively use the risk-neutral information to model the variance of the returns and to forecast the Value-at-Risk. Our results show that, in general, the proposed model outperforms the benchmark while considerably reducing the number of parameters to be estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrera, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2024. "Market risk modeling with option-implied covariances and score-driven dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:72:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824000615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102136
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate volatility model; Option-implied volatility; Forecasting; Value-at-risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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