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Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model

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  • Ouyang, Zi-sheng
  • Yang, Xi-te
  • Lai, Yongzeng

Abstract

We propose an Attention-LSTM neural network model to study the systemic risk early warning of China. Based on text mining, the network public opinion index is constructed and used as a training set to be incorporated into the early warning model to test the early warning effect. The results show that: (i) the network public opinion is the non-linear Granger causality of systemic risk. (ii) The Attention-LSTM neural network has strong generalization ability. Early warning effects have been significantly improved. (iii) Compared with the BP neural network model, the SVR model and the ARIMA model, the LSTM neural network early warning model has a higher accuracy rate, and its average prediction accuracy for systemic risk indicators has been improved over short, medium and long terms. When the attention mechanism is included in the LSTM, the Attention-LSTM neural network model is even more accurate in all the cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ouyang, Zi-sheng & Yang, Xi-te & Lai, Yongzeng, 2021. "Systemic financial risk early warning of financial market in China using Attention-LSTM model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s106294082100019x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101383
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    7. Yuanying Chi & Mingjian Yan & Yuexia Pang & Hongbo Lei, 2022. "Financial Risk Assessment of Photovoltaic Industry Listed Companies Based on Text Mining," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, September.
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    9. Kim Long Tran & Hoang Anh Le & Cap Phu Lieu & Duc Trung Nguyen, 2023. "Machine Learning to Forecast Financial Bubbles in Stock Markets: Evidence from Vietnam," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, November.
    10. Guansan Du & Frank Elston, 2022. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Financial risk assessment to improve the accuracy of financial prediction in the internet financial industry using data analytics models," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 925-940, December.
    11. Zhang, Wenyu, 2024. "Dynamic monitoring of financial security risks: A novel China financial risk index and an early warning system," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-short term memory (LSTM) neural network; Attention mechanism; Network public opinion index; Systemic risk; Early warning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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