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Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects

Author

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  • Mikhail Stolbov

    (Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University))

  • Maria Shchepeleva

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

The paper studies salient features of systemic risk in a sample of 22 European (EU and non-EU) countries during January 2010–March 2016. Building on a novel dataset and conducting an empirical horse race, we determine pivotal systemic risk measures for the sample countries. SRISK and volatility indicator tend to lead other metrics, followed by leverage. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, composite systemic risk measures aggregated with the aid of principal and independent component analysis perform worse. The leading systemic risk measures exhibit a high degree of connectedness. The VIX index, TED spread, the Composite Index of Systemic Stress (CISS) and long-term interest rates underlie their dynamics. Two clusters within the sample are identified, with CISS and long-term interest rates being crucial to distinguish between them. There is only scarce evidence for causal linkages between systemic risk and industrial production in the sample countries, based on the concurring results of standard and nonparametric Granger causality tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Systemic risk in Europe: deciphering leading measures, common patterns and real effects," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-91, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:14:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10436-017-0310-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-017-0310-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Jianhua & Zhang, Zhepei & So, Mike K.P., 2021. "On the predictive power of network statistics for financial risk indicators," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
    3. Anna Maria Fiori & Francesco Porro, 2023. "A compositional analysis of systemic risk in European financial institutions," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 325-354, September.
    4. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2020. "Systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Mikhail Stolbov & Alexander Karminsky & Maria Shchepeleva, 2018. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Lead Systemic Risk? A Comparative Analysis of Selected European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 332-360, September.
    6. Mario Maggi & Maria-Laura Torrente & Pierpaolo Uberti, 2020. "Proper measures of connectedness," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 547-571, December.
    7. Mikhail I. Stolbov & Maria A. Shchepeleva & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2021. "A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk, real economic activity, and monetary intervention," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; Cluster analysis; Independent component analysis; Principal component analysis; Panel vector autoregressions; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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