IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v55y2021ics106294082030187x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hau, Liya
  • Zhu, Huiming
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad
  • Sun, Wuqin

Abstract

This paper uses the quantile-on-quantile regression to examine the predictive power of transaction activity for Bitcoin returns over the period from January 2013 to December 2018. We measure the Bitcoin transaction activity using trading volumes, the number of unique Bitcoin transactions, and the number of unique Bitcoin addresses. Considering the onset of structural breaks, we identify considerable effects of the heterogeneity concerning the quantiles of transaction activity, which cannot be depicted fully by the traditional quantile regression method. The empirical results show that higher transaction activity tends to predict higher/lower Bitcoin returns when the market is in a bullish/bearish state. We find that the nexus is asymmetric across quantiles, depending on the sign and size of the transaction activity, and the predictive relationship intensifies in the upper or lower quantiles of the conditional distribution. In addition, this empirical evidence is in line with the volume-return association in the equity market due to private informative and noninformative trading actions. Overall, our findings suggest that transaction activity-based strategies should be made with respect to Bitcoin market performance, specifically during extreme conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sun, Wuqin, 2021. "Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:55:y:2021:i:c:s106294082030187x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S106294082030187X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101297?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Balcilar, Mehmet & Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel, 2017. "Does oil predict gold? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 257-265.
    3. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    4. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    6. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 87-95.
    7. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Co-explosivity in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 178-183.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Roubaud, David & Wang, Shixuan, 2018. "Bitcoin and global financial stress: A copula-based approach to dependence and causality in the quantiles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 297-307.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zakaria, Muhammad & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2018. "The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 282-301.
    11. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    12. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    13. Bouri, Elie & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Trading volume and the predictability of return and volatility in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 340-346.
    14. Han, Liyan & Liu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Uncertainty and currency performance: A quantile-on-quantile approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 702-729.
    15. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    16. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Bitcoin returns and transaction activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 81-85.
    17. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. "Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-181, March.
    18. Blau, Benjamin M., 2018. "Price dynamics and speculative trading in Bitcoin," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 15-21.
    19. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    20. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sohail, Asiya & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2019. "Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in- quantiles approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 602-615.
    21. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    22. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 144-159.
    23. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    24. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
    25. Pieters, Gina & Vivanco, Sofia, 2017. "Financial regulations and price inconsistencies across Bitcoin markets," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-14.
    26. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Hau, Liya, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movement of cryptocurrency return and volatility: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    27. Nadarajah, Saralees & Chu, Jeffrey, 2017. "On the inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 6-9.
    28. Alaoui, Marwane El & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Bitcoin price–volume: A multifractal cross-correlation approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    29. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Kuck, Konstantin, 2018. "Bitcoin, gold and the US dollar – A replication and extension," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 103-110.
    30. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
    31. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    32. Zhu, Huiming & Guo, Yawei & You, Wanhai & Xu, Yaqin, 2016. "The heterogeneity dependence between crude oil price changes and industry stock market returns in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 30-41.
    33. Jan Schneider, 2009. "A Rational Expectations Equilibrium with Informative Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2783-2805, December.
    34. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-168, February.
    35. Gozgor, Giray & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Demir, Ender & Akron, Sagi, 2019. "The relationship between Bitcoin returns and trade policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-82.
    36. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
    37. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yeguang Chi & Qionghua & Chu & Wenyan Hao, 2024. "Return-forecasting and Volatility-forecasting Power of On-chain Activities in the Cryptocurrency Market," Papers 2411.06327, arXiv.org.
    2. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, Khaled, 2022. "Dynamic dependence and predictability between volume and return of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): The roles of market factors and geopolitical risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Marthinsen, John E. & Gordon, Steven R., 2022. "The price and cost of bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 280-288.
    4. Chan, Stephen & Chandrashekhar, Durga & Almazloum, Ward & Zhang, Yuanyuan & Lord, Nicholas & Osterrieder, Joerg & Chu, Jeffrey, 2024. "Stylized facts of metaverse non-fungible tokens," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 653(C).
    5. Cole, Benjamin M. & Dyhrberg, Anne H. & Foley, Sean & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "Can Bitcoin be Trusted? Quantifying the economic value of blockchain transactions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2023. "An analysis of the return–volume relationship in decentralised finance (DeFi)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-254.
    7. Şoiman, Florentina & Dumas, Jean-Guillaume & Jimenez-Garces, Sonia, 2023. "What drives DeFi market returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Hoang, Lai T. & Baur, Dirk G., 2022. "Loaded for bear: Bitcoin private wallets, exchange reserves and prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. John E. Marthinsen & Steven R. Gordon, 2022. "The Price and Cost of Bitcoin," Papers 2204.13102, arXiv.org.
    10. Napat Rujeerapaiboon & Sanae Rujivan & Hongdan Chen, 2025. "Discounted-likelihood valuation of variance and volatility swaps," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-34, December.
    11. Florentina Șoiman & Jean-Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces, 2022. "The return of (I)DeFiX [Le rendement de (I)DeFiX]," Working Papers hal-03625891, HAL.
    12. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Dias, Ishanka K. & Fernando, J.M. Ruwani & Fernando, P. Narada D., 2022. "Does investor sentiment predict bitcoin return and volatility? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi, 2023. "Do stochastic risks flow between industrial and precious metals, Islamic stocks, green bonds, green stocks, clean investments, major foreign exchange rates, and Bitcoin?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    15. Liu, Jiatong & Mao, Weifang & Qiao, Xingzhi, 2023. "Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading, financial uncertainties, and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Chen, Hao & Xu, Chao, 2022. "The impact of cryptocurrencies on China's carbon price variation during COVID-19: A quantile perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    18. Florentina c{S}oiman & Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces, 2022. "The return of (I)DeFiX," Papers 2204.00251, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Mungai, Ann Nduati, 2022. "Stock returns, trading volume, and volatility: The case of African stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 144-159.
    4. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    5. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    6. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Eric, 2021. "Structural vector error correction modelling of Bitcoin price," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 170-178.
    7. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    8. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    10. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    11. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2023. "An analysis of the return–volume relationship in decentralised finance (DeFi)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-254.
    12. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    13. Gupta, Suman & Das, Debojyoti & Hasim, Haslifah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume revisited: A MODWT-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 91-98.
    14. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    15. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Bitcoin versus high-performance technology stocks in diversifying against global stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    16. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2019. "Centralized and decentralized bitcoin markets: Euro vs USD vs GBP," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 270-279.
    17. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    19. Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2021. "Excess Volatility in Bitcoin: Extreme Value Volatility Estimation," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 222-231, July.
    20. Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies vs. US dollar: Evidence from causality in quantiles analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 238-252.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:55:y:2021:i:c:s106294082030187x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.