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Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions

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  • Bossman, Ahmed
  • Gubareva, Mariya
  • Teplova, Tamara

Abstract

In a nonparametric quantile-on-quantile regression analysis, we study the asymmetric effects of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk (GPR) on the seven major currencies in terms of the USD-denominated exchange rates. We find that GPR's impact on exchange rates is asymmetric, especially at low and high extremes, currency-specific, and depends on whether the country's legal system is predominantly based on common law or otherwise. Our findings signal the attractiveness of the Euro and the Swiss Franc currencies as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The investment and policy implications of the findings are discussed.

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  • Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:51:y:2023:i:c:s1544612322006171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103440
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    6. Patel, Ritesh & Gubareva, Mariya & Chishti, Muhammad Zubair, 2024. "Assessing the connectedness between cryptocurrency environment attention index and green cryptos, energy cryptos, and green financial assets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
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    8. Huang, Shoujun & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Bossman, Ahmed, 2024. "African forex markets: Modeling their predictability and the asymmetric effects of oil and geopolitical risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Liu, Wei & Chen, Xiao & Zhang, Jihong, 2023. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the automotive energy transition: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    10. Ugolini, Andrea & Reboredo, Juan C. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Connectedness between DeFi, cryptocurrency, stock, and safe-haven assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    11. Mensi, Walid & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Spillover and connectedness among G7 real estate investment trusts: The effects of investor sentiment and global factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    13. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Corbet, Shaen, 2024. "The role of international currency spillovers in shaping exchange rate dynamics in Latin America," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-10.
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    15. Yang, Junhua & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Marfo-Yiadom, Edward, 2024. "Energy, metals, market uncertainties, and ESG stocks: Analysing predictability and safe havens," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    16. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    17. Bossman, Ahmed & Umar, Zaghum & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "The impact of the US yield curve on sub-Saharan African equities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
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    19. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Hanif, Waqas & Andraz, Jorge Miguel & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2024. "Are REITS hedge or safe haven against oil price fall?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1-16.
    21. Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2023. "Extreme return and volatility connectedness among real estate tokens, REITs, and other assets: The role of global factors and portfolio implications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Foreign exchange rates; Quantile causality-in-means; Quantile regression model; Quantile-on-quantile regression; Russia; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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