IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v65y2023ics1062940823000062.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading, financial uncertainties, and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Jiatong
  • Mao, Weifang
  • Qiao, Xingzhi

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading (CET), financial uncertainties, and Chinese stocks in different industries over the period from 19th December 2013 to 21st March 2022. We utilized a novel quantile framework including rolling window quantile regression method, quantile-on-quantile method, and causality-in-quantiles method to implement this research more comprehensively and accurately. Our contributions and findings, empirical in nature, are as follows: (i) In the early establishing stage of the carbon market, with a bullish market situation, carbon emission trading has a negative impact on most industry stocks. In the developing and improving stage of the carbon market, different industries have different impact situations. (ii) We find that the effects of financial uncertainty on stocks are stronger than CET on stocks. We also find that the dependence structures between CET, financial uncertainty, and industry stocks are asymmetric in most industries, and there are many mutation structures with significant risks in extreme situations. (iii) Carbon emissions trading, crude oil volatility, and US stock volatility all have strong causal relationships with Chinese industry stocks. (iv) We also provide policy suggestions to relevant countries to balance carbon market and stock markets and avoid risks from financial uncertainty in different industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Jiatong & Mao, Weifang & Qiao, Xingzhi, 2023. "Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading, financial uncertainties, and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:65:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823000062
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.101883
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940823000062
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101883?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan, 2021. "Hedging macroeconomic and financial uncertainty and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 23-45.
    2. Olimpia Neagu & Mircea Constantin Teodoru, 2019. "The Relationship between Economic Complexity, Energy Consumption Structure and Greenhouse Gas Emission: Heterogeneous Panel Evidence from the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Continuous wavelet transform and rolling correlation of European stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 237-256.
    4. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2016. "Does uncertainty move the gold price? New evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-80.
    5. Wu, Rui & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko & Tian, Xu, 2016. "Achieving China’s INDC through carbon cap-and-trade: Insights from Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1114-1122.
    6. Zhang, Junjie & Wang, Can, 2011. "Co-benefits and additionality of the clean development mechanism: An empirical analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 140-154, September.
    7. Yinpeng Zhang & Zhixin Liu & Xueying Yu, 2017. "The Diversification Benefits of Including Carbon Assets in Financial Portfolios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Guo, Peng & Zhu, Huiming & You, Wanhai, 2018. "Asymmetric dependence between economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in G7 and BRIC: A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 251-258.
    11. Yue‐Jun Zhang & Wei Shi & Lin Jiang, 2020. "Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 872-885, March.
    12. Huayun Jiang & Neda Todorova & Eduardo Roca & Jen-Je Su, 2019. "Agricultural commodity futures trading based on cross-country rolling quantile return signals," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1373-1390, August.
    13. Jiang, Yonghong & Feng, Qidi & Mo, Bin & Nie, He, 2020. "Visiting the effects of oil price shocks on exchange rates: Quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
    15. Dong, Xiyong & Li, Changhong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Asymmetric dependence structures for regional stock markets: An unconditional quantile regression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Zhu, Huiming & Yu, Dongwei & Hau, Liya & Wu, Hao & Ye, Fangyu, 2022. "Time-frequency effect of crude oil and exchange rates on stock markets in BRICS countries: Evidence from wavelet quantile regression analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Fatma Alahouel & Nadia Loukil, 2021. "Islamic stock-sukuk indexes' correlations: does financial uncertainty matter?," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(8), pages 1840-1864, January.
    18. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
    19. Das, Debojyoti & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hasim, Haslifah M., 2018. "On the relationship of gold, crude oil, stocks with financial stress: A causality-in-quantiles approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 169-174.
    20. Zhang, Xingmin & Zhang, Shuai, 2021. "Optimal time-varying tail risk network with a rolling window approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    21. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Yiwen & Ren, Yinghua & Xing, Zhanming & Hau, Liya, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and dependence structure between crude oil, EPU and Chinese industry stock: Evidence from multiscale quantile perspectives," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    22. Xu, Lin & Wu, Chenyang & Qin, Quande & Lin, Xiaoying, 2022. "Spillover effects and nonlinear correlations between carbon emissions and stock markets: An empirical analysis of China's carbon-intensive industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    23. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Liang, Ting & Jin, Yan-Lin & Shen, Bo, 2020. "The impact of carbon trading on economic output and carbon emissions reduction in China’s industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    24. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-60.
    25. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    26. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Monetary policy, financial uncertainty, and secular stagnation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    27. Han, Liyan & Liu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Uncertainty and currency performance: A quantile-on-quantile approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 702-729.
    28. Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang K. & Song, Song, 2012. "A Consistent Nonparametric Test For Causality In Quantile," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 861-887, August.
    29. Sun, Xiaotian & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Liu, Siyao & Wu, Tao, 2022. "Complex causalities between the carbon market and the stock markets for energy intensive industries in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 404-417.
    30. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sun, Wuqin, 2021. "Does transaction activity predict Bitcoin returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    31. Nishiyama, Yoshihiko & Hitomi, Kohtaro & Kawasaki, Yoshinori & Jeong, Kiho, 2011. "A consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality—Specification in time series regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(1), pages 112-127.
    32. Liu, Zhibin & Huang, Shan, 2021. "Carbon option price forecasting based on modified fractional Brownian motion optimized by GARCH model in carbon emission trading," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    33. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    34. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2020. "Volatility persistence in the Russian stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Candelon, Bertrand & Hasse, Jean-Baptiste, 2023. "Testing for causality between climate policies and carbon emissions reduction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    2. Duan, Kun & Liu, Yang & Yan, Cheng & Huang, Yingying, 2023. "Differences in carbon risk spillovers with green versus traditional assets: Evidence from a full distributional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    3. Yadu Zhang & Yiteng Zhang & Zuoren Sun, 2023. "The Impact of Carbon Emission Trading Policy on Enterprise ESG Performance: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-27, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Hao & Xu, Chao, 2022. "The impact of cryptocurrencies on China's carbon price variation during COVID-19: A quantile perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. Yang, Dong-Xiao & Wu, Bi-Bo & Tong, Jing-Yang, 2021. "Dynamics and causality of oil price shocks on commodities: Quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Yiwen & Ren, Yinghua & Xing, Zhanming & Hau, Liya, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and dependence structure between crude oil, EPU and Chinese industry stock: Evidence from multiscale quantile perspectives," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Mo, Bin & Nie, He & Zhao, Rongjie, 2024. "Dynamic nonlinear effects of geopolitical risks on commodities: Fresh evidence from quantile methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    5. Duan, Kun & Liu, Yang & Yan, Cheng & Huang, Yingying, 2023. "Differences in carbon risk spillovers with green versus traditional assets: Evidence from a full distributional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    6. Juan Meng & Bin Mo & He Nie, 2023. "The dynamics of crude oil future prices on China's energy markets: Quantile‐on‐quantile and casualty‐in‐quantiles approaches," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1853-1871, December.
    7. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    8. Chen, Yanan & Qi, Haozhi, 2024. "COVID-19 pandemic-related news and Chinese commodities futures: Time-frequency connectedness and causality-in-quantiles approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    9. Chen, Qitong & Zhu, Huiming & Yu, Dongwei & Hau, Liya, 2022. "How does investor attention matter for crude oil prices and returns? Evidence from time-frequency quantile causality analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    10. Gemici, Eray & Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Predictability of risk appetite in Turkey: Local versus global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Shahzad, Umer & Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Panait, Mirela & Sarker, Tapan & Apostu, Simona Andreea, 2023. "Emerging interaction of artificial intelligence with basic materials and oil & gas companies: A comparative look at the Islamic vs. conventional markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Tao, Miaomiao & Poletti, Stephen & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Wen, Le, 2024. "Nexus between carbon, stock, and energy markets in New Zealand: An analysis of causal domains," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    13. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
    14. Jiang, Yonghong & Feng, Qidi & Mo, Bin & Nie, He, 2020. "Visiting the effects of oil price shocks on exchange rates: Quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Seyi Saint Akadiri & Usenobong Akpan & Bisola Aladenika, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of financial globalization on carbon emissions in G7 countries: Fresh insight from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1285-1304, August.
    16. Zhang, Hao & Cai, Guixin & Yang, Dongxiao, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on clean energy stocks: Fresh evidence from multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Balcilar, Mehmet & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Distribution specific dependence and causality between industry-level U.S. credit and stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-133.
    19. Jiang, Yonghong & Wang, Jieru & Lie, Jiayi & Mo, Bin, 2021. "Dynamic dependence nexus and causality of the renewable energy stock markets on the fossil energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Balcilar, Mehmet & Abidin Ozdemir, Zeynel, 2017. "Does oil predict gold? A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 257-265.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic and asymmetric effect; Carbon emission trading; Financial uncertainties; Chinese Industry Stock; Quantile-on-quantile; Causality-in-quantiles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:65:y:2023:i:c:s1062940823000062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.