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Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union

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  • Jackson, Karen
  • Shepotylo, Oleksandr

Abstract

As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc. However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2018. "Post-Brexit trade survival: Looking beyond the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 317-328.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:317-328
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.010
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    2. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Li, Hong, 2020. "Volatility spillovers across European stock markets under the uncertainty of Brexit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Karen Jackson & Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2021. "An examination of EU trade disintegration scenarios," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 2-20, January.
    6. Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Robinson, Sherman, 2020. "Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 72-87.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership; Gravity; UK; EU; F13; F15; F17;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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