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Testing a model of UK growth: A role for R&D subsidies

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  • Minford, Lucy
  • Meenagh, David

Abstract

R&D is a main driver of growth, whether by generating new ideas for production or increasing technological transfer. However, R&D itself is risky and faces numerous barriers which may reduce its marginal return. Direct R&D subsides are intended to counteract such barriers, but whether they lead empirically to increased economic growth is unclear. In our structural model of the UK, subsidies offset the frictional costs associated with R&D, incentivising innovation and so stimulating productivity growth. We estimate and test this structural model by indirect inference, a method not previously used in work on R&D. We find that even temporary cuts to R&D funding have long-lasting impacts on UK economic growth. The power of the test allows us to calculate tight accuracy bounds for our results and for policy reform impacts calculated using the model. These findings are of high relevance to the ongoing debate around the future UK innovation environment.

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  • Minford, Lucy & Meenagh, David, 2019. "Testing a model of UK growth: A role for R&D subsidies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:152-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.01.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fan, Meiting & Li, Mengxu & Liu, Jianghua & Shao, Shuai, 2022. "Is high natural resource dependence doomed to low carbon emission efficiency? Evidence from 283 cities in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Qiao, Lu & Fei, Junjun, 2022. "Government subsidies, enterprise operating efficiency, and “stiff but deathless” zombie firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Long, Yingzi & Cai, Dapeng, 2023. "Why do governments subsidize R&D-Intensive foreign direct investment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Lyu, Juyi & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2021. "Macroprudential regulation in the post-crisis era: Has the pendulum swung too far?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Mardones, Cristian & Velásquez, Andrés, 2021. "Macroeconomic, intersectoral, and environmental effects of R&D subsidies in Chile: An input-output approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    R&D; Economic growth; Total factor productivity (TFP); UK; Indirect inference; DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • O00 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General - - - General
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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