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A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models

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Abstract

We propose a numerical method, based on indirect inference, for checking the identification of a DSGE model. Monte Carlo samples are generated from the model's true structural parameters and a VAR approximation to the reduced form estimated for each sample. We then search for a different set of structural parameters that could potentially also generate these VAR parameters. If we can find such a set, the model is not identified.

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  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2013. "A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2013/4
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    2. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
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    6. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2016. "Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 157-161.
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    10. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
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    15. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2011. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2078-2104.
    16. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    17. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2012. "What causes banking crises? An empirical investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 9057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Minford, Lucy & Meenagh, David, 2019. "Testing a model of UK growth: A role for R&D subsidies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-167.
    3. Minford, Lucy & Meenagh, David, 2018. "Testing a model of UK growth - a causal role for R&D subsidies," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2022. "Targeting moments for calibration compared with indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2022/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    6. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 593-620, July.
    7. Vo Phuong Mai Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2024. "The Role of Fiscal Policy — A Survey of Recent Empirical Findings," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 985-998, November.
    8. Lucy Minford & David Meenagh, 2020. "Supply-Side Policy and Economic Growth: A Case Study of the UK," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 159-193, February.
    9. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Meenagh, David & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2012. "Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments," CEPR Discussion Papers 9056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Fan, Jingwen, 2013. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - identification and testing for the UK in the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 9763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2018. "Financial stability: To regulate or not? A public choice inquiry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 127-140.
    12. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Yongdeng Xu, 2024. "Indirect Inference and Small Sample Bias — Some Recent Results," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 245-259, April.
    13. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    14. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2018. "The small sample properties of Indirect Inference in testing and estimating DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    16. Andrzej Kocięcki & Marcin Kolasa, 2018. "Global identification of linearized DSGE models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), pages 1243-1263, November.
    17. Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2024. "Indirect Inference- a methodological essay on its role and applications," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    18. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2020. "News and why it is not shocking: The role of micro-foundations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Aminu, Nasir, 2019. "Energy prices volatility and the United Kingdom: Evidence from a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 487-497.
    20. Nasir Aminu, 2018. "Evaluation of a DSGE Model of Energy in the United Kingdom Using Stationary Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 1033-1068, April.
    21. Phuong Mai Le, Vo & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2022. "Regulatory arbitrage, shadow banking and monetary policy in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Identification; DSGE model; Monte Carlo; Indirect Inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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