IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v59y2016icp93-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Özmen, Erdal
  • Doğanay Yaşar, Özge

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of sovereign credit ratings and global financial conditions on the evolution of EMBI Global (EMBIG) spreads for a panel of 23 developing countries by using daily data for the period between 1998 and 2012. To this end, we employ not only the conventional panel estimation procedures, but also the recent methods tackling with either cross-sectional dependence stemming from common global shocks or a potential endogeneity. Our results suggest that credit ratings along with global financial conditions re the main determinants of EMBIG spreads. The determinants of EMBIG spreads are not invariant to speculative and investment grade episodes and transitions between them. The recent global crisis changed the determinants of EMBIG spreads and led to credit ratings' impact to converge between speculative and investment grade countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:93-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.06.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316301778
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.06.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertrand Candelon & Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/068, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-153.
    3. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    5. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    6. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    8. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    10. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    11. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    12. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    14. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    16. Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Roberto Rigobon, 2013. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add Value? Evidence From The Sovereign Rating Business," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 240-265, July.
    17. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    19. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    20. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Bagdatoglou, George & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2015. "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 363-371.
    21. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    23. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomás Williams, 2010. "US Rates and Emerging Markets Spreads," Business School Working Papers 2010-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    24. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    25. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    26. László Mátyás & Patrick Sevestre (ed.), 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75892-1, July-Dece.
    27. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    28. Laura Jaramillo & Ms. Michelle Michelle Tejada, 2011. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets: Does Investment Grade Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2011/044, International Monetary Fund.
    29. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    30. Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2008. "Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1325-1336, December.
    31. Kennedy, Mike & Palerm, Angel, 2014. "Emerging market bond spreads: The role of global and domestic factors from 2002 to 2011," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 70-87.
    32. Patrick Sevestre & Laszlo Matyas, 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00279977, HAL.
    33. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer, 2015. "Sovereign ratings of advanced and emerging economies after the crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    35. Riedel, Christoph & Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Wagner, Niklas, 2013. "Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 209-223.
    36. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-13.
    37. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/212, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Özatay, Fatih & Özmen, Erdal & Sahinbeyoglu, Gülbin, 2009. "Emerging market sovereign spreads, global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 526-531, March.
    39. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    40. Steven B. Kamin & K von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging markets credit spreads in the 1990s," BIS Working Papers 68, Bank for International Settlements.
    41. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dachraoui, Hajer & Smida, Mounir & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 15-33.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erdal Özmen & Özge Doğanay Yaşar, 2015. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spreads, Credit Ratings and Global Financial Crisis," ERC Working Papers 1510, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2015.
    2. Özatay, Fatih & Özmen, Erdal & Sahinbeyoglu, Gülbin, 2009. "Emerging market sovereign spreads, global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 526-531, March.
    3. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    4. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    5. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2013. "Do Migrant Remittances Complement Domestic Investment? New Evidence from Panel Cointegration," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1308, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2017. "Is There an Investment Motive Behind Remittances? Evidence From Panel Cointegration," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 63-82, January-M.
    7. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    8. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.
    9. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    11. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    12. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    13. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    14. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    16. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2022. "External shocks, cross-border flows and macroeconomic risks in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2111-2148, May.
    17. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    18. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    19. Ratha, Dilip & De, Supriyo & Kurlat, Sergio, 2018. "Does governing law affect bond spreads?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 60-78.
    20. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Jing, 2015. "Cointegration of matched home purchases and rental price indexes — Evidence from Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 80-88.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:93-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.