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US Rates and Emerging Markets Spreads

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  • Eduardo Levy-Yeyati
  • Tomás Williams

Abstract

While many studies document the influence of global liquidity and risk aversion on emerging markets spreads, less is known about their link with the US yield curve –a point that becomes more relevant at today´s historically low US rates. In this note, we examine the channels through which emerging markets spreads could be affected by changes in the US Treasury curve, and their economic importance in light of realistic scenarios, accounting for the differential response from investment and non investment grade economies, and during periods of financial distress. We find that a UST curve steepening (e.g., due to an oversupply of Treasuries) represents a more important risk factor for emerging market spreads than a monetary policy tightening.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomás Williams, 2010. "US Rates and Emerging Markets Spreads," Business School Working Papers 2010-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:2010-02
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    File URL: http://www.utdt.edu/download.php?fname=_126514450123755000.pdf
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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts And Issues," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 54-66, July.
    3. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    4. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2008. "The cost of reserves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 39-42, July.
    5. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
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    1. Erdal Özmen & Özge Doğanay Yaşar, 2015. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spreads, Credit Ratings and Global Financial Crisis," ERC Working Papers 1510, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2015.
    2. Belyakov, Igor (Беляков, Игорь), 2017. "On the Determinants of Sovereign Eurobond Spreads in Russia [О Факторах, Определяющих Спрэды Суверенных Еврооблигаций России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 200-225, February.
    3. Csontó, Balázs, 2014. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads and shifts in global market sentiment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 58-74.
    4. Patricia Gómez-González, 2015. "Financial innovation in sovereign borrowing and public provision of liquidity," Working Papers 1511, Banco de España.
    5. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.

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