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Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach

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  • Liyanaarachchi, Tilak S.
  • Naranpanawa, Athula
  • Bandara, Jayatilleke S.

Abstract

This paper revisits the long standing controversy of trade and poverty linkage using a macro-micro modelling approach based on general equilibrium and microsimulation analytical frameworks. Sri Lanka, the first country in South Asia which undertook trade reforms more than three decades ago, is taken as a case in point in this study. The paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on income distribution and poverty in the urban, rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka using the first ever microsimulation model built for the country in combination with a multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results reveal that without any fiscal policy adjustments a 100% tariff cut would lead to an increase in economic growth and a reduction in poverty incidence both in the short run as well as in the long run. However, when the tariff cut combined with the fiscal policy adjustments to maintain the budget neutrality, poverty outcomes showed mixed results. In contrast, results show that trade liberalisation increases the income inequality in Sri Lanka.

Suggested Citation

  • Liyanaarachchi, Tilak S. & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S., 2016. "Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 102-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:102-115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.07.008
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    2. Farajzadeh, Zakariya & Zhu, Xueqin & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2017. "Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 75-85.
    3. Anderson, Edward, 2020. "The impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality: Evidence from CGE models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1208-1227.
    4. Britz, Wolfgang & Jafari, Yaghoob & Nekhay, Olexandr & Roson, Roberto, 2022. "Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Hauwah K. K. Abdulkareem & Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh & Ebenezer Olubiyi, 2023. "Trade–peace conundrum in Africa: The moderating effects of poverty and inequality," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 35(4), pages 323-335, December.
    6. Hend Ghazzai & Wided Hemissi & Rim Lahmandi‐Ayed & Sana Mami Kefi, 2023. "More competition to alleviate poverty? A general equilibrium model and an empirical study," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(5), pages 985-1011, October.
    7. Atta Ullah & Zhao Kui & Saif Ullah & Chen Pinglu & Saba Khan, 2021. "Sustainable Utilization of Financial and Institutional Resources in Reducing Income Inequality and Poverty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Yerrabati, Sridevi, 2022. "Does vulnerable employment alleviate poverty in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Temilola Osinubi, Tolulope, 2020. "The Role Of Income Inequality In The Globalisation-Poverty Nexus: Empirical Evidence From Mint Countries," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 7(2), pages 67-89, June.
    10. Mahadevan, Renuka & Nugroho, Anda & Amir, Hidayat, 2017. "Do inward looking trade policies affect poverty and income inequality? Evidence from Indonesia's recent wave of rising protectionism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-34.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Trade liberalisation; Computable general equilibrium model; Microsimulation; Income distribution; South Asia; Sri Lanka;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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