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Evaluación de los efectos de las políticas de exportación y de productividad en la distribución del ingreso a partir de microsimulaciones

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  • Carlos Foronda Rojas

    (Centro de Generación de Información y Estadísticas, Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Abstract

En este trabajo se emplean modelos de elección discreta y la técnica de microsimulaciones para estudiar el efecto de shocks o perturbaciones sobre la distribución del ingreso de los hogares. Se utiliza esta metodología para evaluar los efectos ex-post de políticas de comercio exterior y productivas sobre el ingreso de las personas a partir de dos ejercicios de simulación. En el primer ejercicio se consideran eventuales efectos de la destrucción de empleos relacionados con el sector exportador (no ampliación del ATPDEA). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que se incrementa considerablemente la pobreza y, marginalmente, la desigualdad. En el segundo ejercicio se simula una política que permita mayores empleos exportadores (ampliación del ATPDEA y conquista de nuevos mercados), acompañada de un incremento de la productividad en el sector agrícola. Los resultados muestran que esta combinación de políticas permite reducir significativamente la pobreza y la desigualdad.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Foronda Rojas, 2006. "Evaluación de los efectos de las políticas de exportación y de productividad en la distribución del ingreso a partir de microsimulaciones," Investigación & Desarrollo, Universidad Privada Boliviana, vol. 1(1), pages 41-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Microsimulaciones; políticas de exportación; probit multinomial; redistribución; globalización;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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