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Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Buehren

    (Clausthal University of Technology)

  • Tim Meyer

    (Helmut Schmidt University)

  • Christian Pierdzioch

    (Helmut Schmidt University)

Abstract

We experimentally analyzed whether (anti-)herding behavior of forecasters in sport-betting markets is influenced by the incentive structure of the market (winner-takes-all vs. equal payment of most accurate forecasts) and by personal traits of forecasters. We found evidence of anti-herding in forecasts of the German Bundesliga. Self-reported knowledge and, more surprisingly, winner-takes-all incentives reduced anti-herding. On average, forecasts were less accurate with stronger anti-herding. Winner-takes-all incentives and self-reported knowledge improved forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Buehren & Tim Meyer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202038, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202038
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    Keywords

    (Anti-)Herding; Sports forecasting; Experiment; Survey data;
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