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What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?

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  • Meniago, Christelle
  • Mukuddem-Petersen, Janine
  • Petersen, Mark A.
  • Mongale, Itumeleng P.

Abstract

The 2007–2008 US subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis that negatively affected many economies in the world and was afterwards widely referred to as the global financial crisis. Since the beginning of this financial crisis of 2008–2009, South Africa experienced a significant increase in its household debt to income ratio. In the main, this paper investigates the prominent factors contributing to the rise in the level of household debt in South Africa. Specifically, we construct a model for South African household debt through the application of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We employ quarterly time series data throughout the timeline 1985 Q1 to 2012 Q1 and all the econometric tests are analyzed using the statistical software package EViews 7. Our results confirmed the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship between household debt and other macroeconomic determinants. Increasing household debt was found to be significantly affected by positive changes in consumer price index, gross domestic product and household consumption. Also, house prices and household savings were found to positively contribute to a rise in household debt but this relationship was found to be statistically insignificant. Alternatively, household borrowing was found to be significantly and insignificantly affected by negative changes in income and prime rate, respectively. Ultimately, the existence of a long run cointegrated relationship enabled us to build an error correction model for household debt which will facilitate future forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Meniago, Christelle & Mukuddem-Petersen, Janine & Petersen, Mark A. & Mongale, Itumeleng P., 2013. "What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 482-492.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:482-492
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.028
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    2. Enache Calcedonia, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Household Indebtedness in Romania: An Econometric Approach," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 11(1-2), pages 102-117, December.
    3. Berrak Bahadir & Neven Valev, 2021. "Credit information sharing and the shift in bank lending towards households," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 60-72, January.
    4. Juniours Marire, 2024. "Interactive influence of house prices and the repo rate on household debt in South Africa," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(1), pages 58-78, March.
    5. Deng, Xin & Yu, Mingzhe, 2021. "Does the marginal child increase household debt? – Evidence from the new fertility policy in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Abigail Stiglingh & Lerato Mothibi, 2019. "The link between government expenditure and debt as potential drivers of economic growth in South Africa," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912043, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    7. Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu & Adrian Enciu & Cătălina Adriana Hândoreanu & Carmen Obreja & Florin Blaga, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Household Debt in OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Kwon, Yujin & Park, Sung Y., 2023. "Modeling an early warning system for household debt risk in Korea: A simple deep learning approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Rahman, Sharezan & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Increasing household debts and its relation to GDP, interest rate and house price: Malaysia’s perspective," MPRA Paper 62365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Paravee Maneejuk & Sopanid Teerachai & Atinuch Ratchakit & Woraphon Yamaka, 2021. "Analysis of Difference in Household Debt across Regions of Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Anelisa Nomatye & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Investigating the Macroeconomic Determinants of Hosehold Debt in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 62-69.
    12. Cesar Leandro, Julio & Botelho, Delane, 2022. "Consumer over-indebtedness: A review and future research agenda," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 535-551.
    13. Suhal Kusairi & Suriyani Muhamad & M Musdholifah & Shu-Chen Chang, 2019. "Labor Market and Household Debt in Asia Pacific Countries: Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Data Analysis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-15, June.
    14. Weiou Wu & Apostolos Fasianos & Stephen Kinsella, 2015. "Differences in Borrowing Behaviour between Core and Peripheral Economies — Economic Environment versus Financial Perceptions," Working Papers 201516, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    (Global) Financial crisis; Household indebtedness; Cointegration; Vector Error Correction Model; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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