IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/mareco/v7y2013i2p185-206.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Growth, Tourism and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: A Triangular Causal Relationship in Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Cheam Chai Li

    (Cheam Chai Li is at the College of Business Management, UiTM Kelantan, Bukit Ilmu, 18500 Machang, Kelantan, Malaysia, email: clcheamnet@yahoo.com)

  • Rosli Mahmood

    (Rosli Mahmood is at the College of Business, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah, email: rosli@uum.edu.my)

  • Hussin Abdullah

    (Hussin Abdallah is at the College of Arts and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010, Sintok, Kedah, email: hussin2141@uum.edu.my)

  • Ong Soon Chuan

    (Ong Soon Chuan is at the College of Business and Entrepreneurship, Universiti Malaysia Kelantan, 16010 Pengkalan Chapter, Kelantan, Malaysia, email: chuan@umk.edu.my)

Abstract

Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing industries in the world, which makes it a potential strategic factor for economic growth. This adds to the strong interest in the role of tourism in Malaysia’s economic growth as it is the second-largest contributor to foreign exchange earnings after manufacturing. In addition, empirical results associated with Granger causality among economic growth, tourism and exports within the neoclassical framework are inconsistent. The objectives of this study, thus, are to determine: the long-run relationship; the long-run and short-run Granger causality; and the long-run triangular Granger causality between economic growth and tourism receipts corresponding to selected macroeconomic variables such as government tourism expenditure, physical capital, education, health and exports as control variables. The long-run Granger causality in vector error correction model (VECM) shows economic growth, tourism receipts and health complement each other (bidirectional causality), while unidirectional causalities are found between government tourism expenditure, physical capital, education and exports to economic growth. In addition, enhancing physical capital, education, health, exports and government tourism expenditure precede tourism receipts; all these in turn indirectly lead to economic growth, thus witnessing triangular relationships among them. JEL Classification: C01, C32, L83, 047, O53

Suggested Citation

  • Cheam Chai Li & Rosli Mahmood & Hussin Abdullah & Ong Soon Chuan, 2013. "Economic Growth, Tourism and Selected Macroeconomic Variables: A Triangular Causal Relationship in Malaysia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(2), pages 185-206, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:7:y:2013:i:2:p:185-206
    DOI: 10.1177/0973801013483503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0973801013483503
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0973801013483503?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Ramesh Durbarry, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 389-401, December.
    4. Codrina Rada, Lance Taylor, 2006. "WP 2006-1 Developing and Transition Economies in the Late 20th Century: Diverging Growth Rates, Economic Structures, and Sources of Demand," SCEPA working paper series. 2006-1, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    5. Brist, Lonnie E & Caplan, Arthur J, 1999. "More Evidence on the Role of Secondary Education in the Development of Lower-Income Countries: Wishful Thinking or Useful Knowledge?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 155-175, October.
    6. Adamos Adamou & Sofronis Clerides, 2010. "Prospects and Limits of Tourism-Led Growth: The International Evidence," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 2(3), pages 287-303, September.
    7. Jerome Creel & Gwenaelle Poilon, 2008. "Is public capital productive in Europe?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 673-691.
    8. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    9. Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "Tourism and Growth: Evidence for Spain and Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa06p128, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    12. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    13. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "Technology and trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1279-1337, Elsevier.
    14. Boopen Seetanah & Kesseven Padachi & Sawkut Rojid, 2011. "Tourism and Economic Growth: African Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-033, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June.
    16. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    18. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    19. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    20. Chor Foon Tang, 2009. "An Examination of the Government Spending and Economic Growth Nexus for Malaysia Using the Leveraged Bootstrap Simulation Approach," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 215-227.
    21. Paolo Figini & Laura Vici, 2010. "Tourism and Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 789-805, December.
    22. Nancy L. Stokey, 1991. "Human Capital, Product Quality, and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 587-616.
    23. Philip Grossman, 1988. "Government and economic growth: A non-linear relationship," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 193-200, February.
    24. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    25. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    26. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Paulo Macas Nunes, 2008. "Does tourism influence economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2431-2441.
    27. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Grossman, Philip J, 1988. "Growth in Government and Economic Growth: The Australian Experience," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(50), pages 33-43, June.
    29. M. Thea Sinclair, 1998. "Tourism and economic development: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 1-51.
    30. Fumitaka Furuoka, 2008. "Wagner s Law in Malaysia: A New Empirical Evidence," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 33-43, July.
    31. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    32. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
    33. Ms. Jenny E Ligthart, 2000. "Public Capital and Output Growth in Portugal: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/011, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Yousif Khalifa Al-Yousif, 2008. "Education expenditure and economic growth:some empirical evidence from the GCC countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 69-80, September.
    35. McMillin, W Douglas & Smyth, David J, 1994. "A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of the United States Aggregate Production Function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 659-673.
    36. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2011. "Tourism, Exports and FDI as a Means of Growth: Evidence from four Asian Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(40), pages 131-151, June.
    37. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6159 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    39. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo Manuelli, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth," NBER Working Papers 3241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Codrina Rada & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Developing and Transition Economies in the Late 20th Century: Diverging Growth Rates, Economic Structures, and Sources of Demand," Working Papers 34, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    43. Krueger, Anne O, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 288-292, May.
    44. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-1038, October.
    45. Chor Foon Tang, 2008. "Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: New Evidence from Recursive Regression-Based Causality Approaches," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 29-38, November.
    46. Sinha, Dipendra, 1998. "Economic growth and government expenditure in China," MPRA Paper 18347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
    48. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham, 1996. "Public Capital and Private Production in Australia," MPRA Paper 52110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    2. Suhel & Abdul Bashir, 2018. "The role of tourism toward economic growth in the local economy," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 10(1), pages 32-39, April.
    3. Ma, Tao & Hong, Tao & Zhang, Haozhe, 2015. "Tourism spatial spillover effects and urban economic growth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 74-80.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "Tourism and Growth: Evidence for Spain and Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa06p128, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Cortes-Jimenez, Isabel & Pulina, Manuela, 2006. "A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy," Natural Resources Management Working Papers 12137, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Turnovsky, S., 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: some Recent Developments," Papers 5, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Aykut Kibritçioglu, 2002. "On the Smithian origins of "new" trade and growth theories," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    6. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    7. Jalil, Abdul & Mahmood, Tahir & Idrees, Muhammad, 2013. "Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 185-191.
    8. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    9. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    11. Abo-Zaid Salem M, 2011. "The Trade-Growth Relationship in Israel Revisited: Evidence from Annual Data, 1960-2004," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 63-93, February.
    12. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    13. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    14. Klenow, Peter J. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2005. "Externalities and Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 817-861, Elsevier.
    15. Ceyhun Can OZCAN & Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2017. "Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 75-98, Summer.
    16. Akama, Erick, 2016. "International tourism receipts and economic growth in Kenya 1980 -2013," MPRA Paper 78110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sin, Chor-Yiu, 1997. "Observational equivalence and a stochastic cointegration test of the neoclassical and Romer's increasing returns models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, January.
    18. Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2009. "Conditioned Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Threshold Regressions Approach," MPRA Paper 13417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Andrew Bernard & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1997. "Public and private provision of infrastructure and economic development," Textos para discussão 375, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    20. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    21. Stefania Villa, 2005. "Determinants of growth in Italy. A time series analysis," Quaderni DSEMS 24-2005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Tourism; Neoclassical Model; Johansen Cointegration; Granger Causality; VECM; Malaysia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:7:y:2013:i:2:p:185-206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ncaer.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.