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Interactive influence of house prices and the repo rate on household debt in South Africa

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  • Juniours Marire

    (Department of Economics and Economic History, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa)

Abstract

The recent interest rate policy decisions of the South African Reserve Bank have been criticized significantly by left-leaning political parties and civic society organisations for being anti-poor, anti-labour, and pro-capital because of their implications for household debt. Existing literature has established that interest rates and house prices are insignificant determinants of household debt dynamics in South Africa. Taking advantage of additional data for the period 2013-2022, and contrary to the previous studies, the paper maintains that house prices and the central bank policy rate play a crucial role in household debt dynamics. Applying a Markov Switching regression to quarterly data for the period 1981Q1 to 2022Q1, the paper finds that house prices and the policy rate have a significant influence on household debt dynamics. It establishes the existence of a ‘house price boom, low policy rate burden’ regime and a ‘high policy rate burden, low house price’ regime. The coexistence of the ‘house price boom’ and the ‘low policy rate’ explains the debt euphoria characterised by significant household leveraging.

Suggested Citation

  • Juniours Marire, 2024. "Interactive influence of house prices and the repo rate on household debt in South Africa," Journal of Economic Analysis, Anser Press, vol. 3(1), pages 58-78, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bba:j00001:v:3:y:2024:i:1:p:58-78:d:152
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sommarat Chantarat & Atchana Lamsam & Krislert Samphantharak & Bhumjai Tangsawasdirat, 2020. "Household Debt and Delinquency over the Life Cycle," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(1), pages 61-92, March.
    2. James Cloyne & Kilian Huber & Ethan Ilzetzki & Henrik Kleven, 2019. "The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2104-2136, June.
    3. Aroop Chatterjee & Léo Czajka & Amory Gethin, 2022. "Wealth Inequality in South Africa, 1993–2017," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 19-36.
    4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 509-544, September.
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