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A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme

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  • van Sonsbeek, J.M.
  • Gradus, R.H.J.M.

Abstract

This paper introduces a microsimulation model that simulates the budgetary impact of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme. A dynamic population model fits the case of the disability benefits the best. As opposed to macro forecasts, a microsimulation can answer questions about the individual or meso income effects, the exact distribution of expenses among different benefits and the time path of the savings. The introduction of the proposed system change decreases the number of disability benefits by more than 25 % from 2020 onwards and reduces total costs by almost € 2 billion or 20 %. Based on the better incentive structure, participation will increase and boost GDP. Microsimulation can be used to pick the winners and losers of the new system and give the time path of the savings. It is shown that for almost all partially disabled that are working, the total discounted income after the system change is as large as or larger than before the system change, for the non-working total discounted income is lower.
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  • van Sonsbeek, J.M. & Gradus, R.H.J.M., 2006. "A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 427-456, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:23:y:2006:i:3:p:427-456
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    1. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek & j.m.van.sonsbeek@vu.nl, 2011. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 72-99.
    2. Koning, Pierre & van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten, 2017. "Making disability work? The effects of financial incentives on partially disabled workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 202-215.
    3. Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Lindley, Joanne & Mcintosh, Steven & Roberts, Jennifer & Czoski Murray, Carolyn & Edlin, Richard, 2015. "Policy evaluation via a statistical control: A non-parametric evaluation of the ‘Want2Work’ active labour market policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 635-645.
    5. Tunga Kantarcı & Jan‐Maarten van Sonsbeek & Yi Zhang, 2023. "The heterogeneous impact of stricter criteria for disability insurance," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(9), pages 1898-1920, September.
    6. Eveline van Leeuwen & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "A Microsimulation Model for E-Services in Cultural Heritage Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(2), pages 361-384, June.
    7. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten & Alblas, Ridwan, 2012. "Disability benefit microsimulation models in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 700-715.
    8. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten, 2010. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 968-979, September.
    9. Pilar García-Gómez & Hans-Martin Gaudecker & Maarten Lindeboom, 2011. "Health, disability and work: patterns for the working age population," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(2), pages 146-165, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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