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Hidden unemployment in disability insurance in the Netherlands; an empirical analysis based on employer data

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  • Pierre Koning
  • Daniel van Vuuren

Abstract

In this paper, we construct and estimate a (semi-) structural model, so as to uncover the fraction of hidden unemployment in the Disability Insurance (DI) enrolment rate. For this purpose, we use longitudinal administrative data of Dutch employers for 1994-2003. We find the (average) fraction of hidden unemployment in DI enrolment to amount to about 11%. This corresponds to 2.6% of the ‘true’ unemployment insurance (UI) enrolment rate of employers. Over the years, we observe a strong decrease in this fraction, from 5.4% in 1995, to 0.7% in 2003. In addition, our estimates suggest that most of correlation that is observed between the UI and DI enrolment rates can be explained by substitution effects, and not by ‘true’ correlation between the schemes that is exogenous to the firm. In the model, the fraction of hidden unemployment in the DI scheme is (over-)identified from various restrictions imposed by the data. First, identification follows from exclusion restrictions obtained from the coefficient estimates of variables that are assumed to influence the UI enrolment rate only. For this purpose, we use information on the wage distribution of workers employed at the firms in our sample, and sectoral growth rates. Second, identification of substitution effects follows from the observed correlation between both enrolment rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Koning & Daniel van Vuuren, 2006. "Hidden unemployment in disability insurance in the Netherlands; an empirical analysis based on employer data," CPB Discussion Paper 69, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:69
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre Koning, 2004. "Estimating the impact of experience rating on the inflow into disability insurance in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 37.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Krueger, Alan B. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2002. "Labor supply effects of social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 33, pages 2327-2392, Elsevier.
    3. Annemiek Vuren & Daniel Vuuren, 2007. "Financial Incentives in Disability Insurance in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 73-98, March.
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    5. Pierre Koning & Daniel van Vuuren, 2010. "Disability insurance and unemployment insurance as substitute pathways," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 575-588.
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    14. Annemiek Vuren & Daniel Vuuren, 2007. "Financial Incentives in Disability Insurance in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 73-98, March.
    15. Pierre Koning, 2004. "Estimating the impact of experience rating on the inflow into disability insurance in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 37, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Koning & Daniel van Vuuren, 2010. "Disability insurance and unemployment insurance as substitute pathways," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 575-588.
    2. Walter Krämer & Klaus Leciejewski, 2021. "Statistik im Sozialismus [Statistic under socialism]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 15(2), pages 73-91, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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