IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v116y2022ics0264999322002334.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations

Author

Listed:
  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Cukierman, Alex
  • Jinjarak, Yothin
  • Nair-Desai, Sameer
  • Xin, Weining

Abstract

We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that are ‘doing substantially better’ in the excess mortality are characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP/Capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. We perform two regressions in which the ratio of Cumulative Excess to Official Covid-19 mortalities (E/O ratio) is regressed on covariates. In a narrow study, controlling for GDP/Capita and vaccination rates, by December 2021 the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broad study, adding institutional and policy variables, the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher degree of voice and accountability. The arrival of vaccines in 2021 and voice and accountability had a discernible association on the E/O ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Cukierman, Alex & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nair-Desai, Sameer & Xin, Weining, 2022. "Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002334
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105990
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999322002334
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105990?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. David Adam, 2022. "The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts," Nature, Nature, vol. 601(7893), pages 312-315, January.
    3. Takanao Tanaka & Shohei Okamoto, 2021. "Increase in suicide following an initial decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 229-238, February.
    4. Beyer, Robert & Yao, Jiaxiong & Hu, Yingyao, 2022. "Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264007, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Edouard Mathieu & Hannah Ritchie & Esteban Ortiz-Ospina & Max Roser & Joe Hasell & Cameron Appel & Charlie Giattino & Lucas Rodés-Guirao, 2021. "A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 947-953, July.
    6. Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020," Working Papers 2020-185, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    7. Vandoros, Sotiris, 2020. "Excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    8. Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020," NBER Working Papers 28303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colin W. Binns & Mi Kyung Lee & Thi Thuy Duong Doan & Andy Lee & Minh Pham & Yun Zhao, 2022. "COVID and Gender: A Narrative Review of the Asia-Pacific Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality," NBER Working Papers 28930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hania Rahimi-Ardabili & Xiaoqi Feng & Phi-Yen Nguyen & Thomas Astell-Burt, 2022. "Have Deaths of Despair Risen during the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-12, October.
    3. Brandily, Paul & Brébion, Clément & Briole, Simon & Khoury, Laura, 2021. "A poorly understood disease? The impact of COVID-19 on the income gradient in mortality over the course of the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Igor Burstyn & Tran B Huynh, 2021. "Experiences of coping with the first wave of COVID-19 epidemic in Philadelphia, PA: Mixed methods analysis of a cross-sectional survey of worries and symptoms of mood disorders," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-28, October.
    5. Casey B. Mulligan & Robert D. Arnott, 2022. "Non-Covid Excess Deaths, 2020-21: Collateral Damage of Policy Choices?," NBER Working Papers 30104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ilias Chronopoulos & Katerina Chrysikou & George Kapetanios & James Mitchell & Aristeidis Raftapostolos, 2023. "Deep Neural Network Estimation in Panel Data Models," Working Papers 23-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2021. "Excess Deaths in the United States During the First Year of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Salvatore F. Pileggi, 2022. "Holistic Resilience Index: measuring the expected country resilience to pandemic," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4107-4127, December.
    9. Emily Cameron-Blake & Helen Tatlow & Bernardo Andretti & Thomas Boby & Kaitlyn Green & Thomas Hale & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Annalena Pott & Adam Wade & Hao Zha, 2023. "A panel dataset of COVID-19 vaccination policies in 185 countries," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 1402-1413, August.
    10. John Gibson, 2023. "Jabbing the economy back to life?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(21), pages 2999-3005, December.
    11. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    12. Santiago Justo Arevalo & Carmen Sofia Uribe Calampa & Cinthy Jimenez Silva & Mauro Quiñones Aguilar & Remco Bouckaert & Joao Renato Rebello Pinho, 2023. "Phylodynamic of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave of COVID-19 in Peru," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Caixia Wang & Huijie Li, 2023. "Variation in Global Policy Responses to COVID-19: A Bidirectional Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-13, February.
    14. Sakouvogui Kekoura & Guilavogui Mama Genevieve, 2022. "How are the United States Banks faring during the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence of Economic Efficiency Measures," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 11-29, January.
    15. David J. Hebert & Michael D. Curry, 2022. "Optimal lockdowns," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 263-274, December.
    16. Galdikiene, Laura & Jaraite, Jurate & Kajackaite, Agne, 2022. "Trust and vaccination intentions: Evidence from Lithuania during the COVID-19 pandemic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 17(11), pages 1-1.
    17. Paul Brandily & Clément Brébion & Simon Briole & Laura Khoury, 2021. "A Poorly Understood Disease? The Evolution of the Income Gradient in Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 within Urban Areas," Working Papers halshs-03154551, HAL.
    18. Clara E. Jace & Christos A. Makridis, 2021. "Does marriage protect mental health? Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2499-2515, November.
    19. Angus Deaton, 2022. "The great divide: education, despair, and death," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 161-168, October.
    20. Reyna-Lara, Adriana & Soriano-Paños, David & Arenas, Alex & Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús, 2022. "The interconnection between independent reactive control policies drives the stringency of local containment," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voice and accountability; Official mortality; Excess mortality; Vaccines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.