IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v115y2022ics0264999322002048.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants and consequences of SME insolvency risk during the pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Kaya, Orcun

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic posed an existential threat to European SMEs' financial resilience with significant consequences for the European economy. Using unique firm-level data on SME financing conditions, this paper proposes a new insolvency risk measure based on survey responses. We show that SME insolvency risk increased, on average, by approximately 21% during the pandemic. Problems with finding customers and the cost of production and labor contributed notably to SME insolvency risk during this period, and SMEs also saw deterioration in their access to finance. Innovation worked as a mitigating factor during the pandemic, and innovative SMEs were more resilient, maintained their client base, and saw favorable access to bank lending. Our results point out that SME innovation can prevent the number of insolvencies from rising significantly in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaya, Orcun, 2022. "Determinants and consequences of SME insolvency risk during the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:115:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002048
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999322002048
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105958?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Canales, Rodrigo & Nanda, Ramana, 2012. "A darker side to decentralized banks: Market power and credit rationing in SME lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 353-366.
    2. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2014. "Financial constraints and firm dynamics," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 99-116, January.
    3. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Jesus Ferreiro & Felipe Serrano, 2021. "The COVID Health Crisis and the Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Euro Area," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 212-225, July.
    5. Ferrando, Annalisa & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2017. "Sovereign stress and SMEs’ access to finance: Evidence from the ECB's SAFE survey," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 65-80.
    6. Bettina Peters & Mark J. Roberts & Van Anh Vuong, 2017. "Dynamic R&D choice and the impact of the firm's financial strength," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1-2), pages 134-149, February.
    7. Marco Cucculelli & Valentina Peruzzi, 2020. "Post-crisis firm survival, business model changes, and learning: evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 459-474, February.
    8. Anabela Santos & Michele Cincera, 2022. "Determinants of financing constraints," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1427-1439, March.
    9. Dirk Czarnitzki & Hanna Hottenrott, 2011. "R&D investment and financing constraints of small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 65-83, January.
    10. Doris Neuberger & Solvig Räthke, 2009. "Microenterprises and multiple bank relationships: The case of professionals," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 207-229, February.
    11. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2014. "Financial constraints and firm dynamics," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 99-116, January.
    12. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi & Federico Tamagni, 2014. "Financial constraints and firm dynamics," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 99-116, January.
    13. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1995. "Relationship Lending and Lines of Credit in Small Firm Finance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 351-381, July.
    14. Gupta, Jairaj & Gregoriou, Andros, 2018. "Impact of market-based finance on SMEs failure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 13-25.
    15. Edmister, Robert O., 1972. "An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1477-1493, March.
    16. Edward Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2005. "Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank Capital Requirements for SMEs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 15-42, October.
    17. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    18. Edward I. Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2013. "MODELING CREDIT RISK FOR SMEs: EVIDENCE FROM THE US MARKET," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 9, pages 251-279, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    20. Bańkowska, Katarzyna & Ferrando, Annalisa & García, Juan Angel, 2020. "The COVID-19 pandemic and access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises: evidence from survey data," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    21. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    22. Nicholas Bloom & Robert S. Fletcher & Ethan Yeh, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms," NBER Working Papers 28314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Anabela Santos & Karel Haegeman & Pietro Moncada-Paternó-Castello, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 and of the earlier crisis on firms’ innovation and growth: a comparative analysis," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-03, Joint Research Centre.
    24. Paola Sapienza, 2002. "The Effects of Banking Mergers on Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 329-367, February.
    25. McGuinness, Gerard & Hogan, Teresa & Powell, Ronan, 2018. "European trade credit use and SME survival," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-103.
    26. Dierkes, Maik & Erner, Carsten & Langer, Thomas & Norden, Lars, 2013. "Business credit information sharing and default risk of private firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2867-2878.
    27. Moro, Andrea & Maresch, Daniela & Fink, Matthias & Ferrando, Annalisa & Piga, Claudio, 2020. "Spillover effects of government initiatives fostering entrepreneurship on the access to bank credit for entrepreneurial firms in Europe," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    28. Julian Oliver Dörr & Georg Licht & Simona Murmann, 2022. "Small firms and the COVID-19 insolvency gap," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 887-917, February.
    29. Yueran Ma & Tiziano Ropele & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2020. "A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 26830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Grice, John Stephen & Ingram, Robert W., 2001. "Tests of the generalizability of Altman's bankruptcy prediction model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 53-61, October.
    31. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    32. Stanislav Kolenikov & Gustavo Angeles, 2009. "Socioeconomic Status Measurement With Discrete Proxy Variables: Is Principal Component Analysis A Reliable Answer?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(1), pages 128-165, March.
    33. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    34. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Zhang, Xuan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Liu, Ding & Xu, Liao, 2020. "Determinants of corporate default risk in China: The role of financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 87-98.
    36. Julie Josse & Jérôme Pagès & François Husson, 2011. "Multiple imputation in principal component analysis," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 5(3), pages 231-246, October.
    37. Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Pasiouras, Fotios & Voulgari, Fotini, 2019. "Culture, business environment and SMEs' profitability: Evidence from European Countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 275-292.
    38. Bańkowska, Katarzyna & Ferrando, Annalisa & García, Juan Angel, 2020. "Access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises after the financial crisis: evidence from survey data," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    39. Alicia M. Robb & David T. Robinson, 2014. "The Capital Structure Decisions of New Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 153-179, January.
    40. Traczynski, Jeffrey, 2017. "Firm Default Prediction: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 1211-1245, June.
    41. Pindado, Julio & Rodrigues, Luis & de la Torre, Chabela, 2008. "Estimating financial distress likelihood," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(9), pages 995-1003, September.
    42. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    43. Cao, Shutao & Leung, Danny, 2020. "Credit constraints and productivity of SMEs: Evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 163-180.
    44. Greta Falavigna & Roberto Ippoliti, 2022. "Financial constraints, investments, and environmental strategies: An empirical analysis of judicial barriers," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 2002-2018, July.
    45. Jairaj Gupta & Andros Gregoriou & Jerome Healy, 2015. "Forecasting bankruptcy for SMEs using hazard function: To what extent does size matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 845-869, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eleonora Cutrini & Federico Ninivaggi, 2024. "Pandemic crisis and firm survival: evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 51(2), pages 265-297, June.
    2. Mehmet Civelek & Vladimír Krajèík & Vendula Fialova, 2023. "The impacts of innovative and competitive abilities of SMEs on their different financial risk concerns: System approach," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 327-354, March.
    3. Bana Abdulmajid Akkad & Sulaiman Mouselli, 2023. "Syrian SMEs in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges, Adaptation, and Policy Measures," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Siying Xu & Gaoyu Zhang & Xianzhi Yuan, 2024. "An Enterprise Multi-agent Model with Game Q-Learning Based on a Single Decision Factor," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2523-2562, October.
    5. Gao, Xiaoxue, 2024. "Unlocking the path to digital financial accounting: A study on Chinese SMEs and startups," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Chi, Guotai & Dong, Bingjie & Zhou, Ying & Jin, Peng, 2024. "Long-horizon predictions of credit default with inconsistent customers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Liu, Qingfu & Shi, Chen & Tse, Yiuman & Wang, Chuanjie, 2023. "The value of communication during pandemics," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Ciampi & Valentina Cillo & Fabio Fiano, 2020. "Combining Kohonen maps and prior payment behavior for small enterprise default prediction," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1007-1039, April.
    2. Cathcart, Lara & Dufour, Alfonso & Rossi, Ludovico & Varotto, Simone, 2020. "The differential impact of leverage on the default risk of small and large firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Ciampi, Francesco, 2015. "Corporate governance characteristics and default prediction modeling for small enterprises. An empirical analysis of Italian firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 1012-1025.
    4. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    5. Alessandro Bitetto & Stefano Filomeni & Michele Modina, 2021. "Understanding corporate default using Random Forest: The role of accounting and market information," DEM Working Papers Series 205, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Carmen Gallucci & Rosalia Santullli & Michele Modina & Vincenzo Formisano, 2023. "Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 27(3), pages 873-892, September.
    7. Falavigna, Greta & Ippoliti, Roberto, 2023. "SMEs’ behavior under financial constraints: An empirical investigation on the legal environment and the substitution effect with tax arrears," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Lin, Hsiou-Wei William & Lo, Huai-Chun & Wu, Ruei-Shian, 2016. "Modeling default prediction with earnings management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 306-322.
    9. Leonardo Becchetti & Annalisa Castelli & Iftekhar Hasan, 2010. "Investment–cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 467-497, November.
    10. Becchetti, Leonardo & Castelli, Annalisa & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2008. "Investment-cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland.
    11. Michal Karas & Mária Režòáková, 2021. "The role of financial constraint factors in predicting SME default," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 16(4), pages 859-883, December.
    12. Ana Paula Matias Gama & Helena Susana Amaral Geraldes, 2012. "Credit risk assessment and the impact of the New Basel Capital Accord on small and medium‐sized enterprises," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(8), pages 727-749, July.
    13. Enrique Batiz‐Zuk & Fabrizio López‐Gallo & Abdulkadir Mohamed & Fátima Sánchez‐Cajal, 2022. "Determinants of loan survival rates for small and medium‐sized enterprises: Evidence from an emerging economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4741-4755, October.
    14. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    15. Doris Neuberger & Solvig Räthke-Döppner, 2015. "The role of demographics in small business loan pricing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 411-424, February.
    16. Becchetti, Leonardo & Castelli, Annalisa & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2008. "Investment-cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints," Research Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland.
    17. Ashraf, Sumaira & Félix, Elisabete G.S. & Serrasqueiro, Zélia, 2020. "Development and testing of an augmented distress prediction model: A comparative study on a developed and an emerging market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    18. Evangelos C. Charalambakis & Ian Garrett, 2019. "On corporate financial distress prediction: What can we learn from private firms in a developing economy? Evidence from Greece," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 467-491, February.
    19. McGuinness, Gerard & Hogan, Teresa & Powell, Ronan, 2018. "European trade credit use and SME survival," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-103.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Evangelos C. Charalambakis, 2014. "On corporate financial distress prediction: what can we learn from private firms in a small open economy?," Working Papers 188, Bank of Greece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; SMEs; Insolvency risk; Access to finance; Innovation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:115:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.