IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbrese/v61y2008i9p995-1003.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating financial distress likelihood

Author

Listed:
  • Pindado, Julio
  • Rodrigues, Luis
  • de la Torre, Chabela

Abstract

This study develops an ex-ante model for estimating financial distress likelihood (FDL), and contributes to the literature by presenting a financially-based definition of distress that is independent of its legal consequences, a theoretically supported model for the FDL, and an appropriate methodology that uses panel data to eliminate the unobservable heterogeneity. The model is then estimated cross-sectionally to obtain an indicator of the likelihood of financial distress that incorporates the specificity of each company. In doing so, this study provides a well-specified model that is stable in terms of magnitude, sign and significance of the coefficients and, more importantly, that yields a measure of the FDL that is more robust to time and the international context than the estimates of FDL that are based on seminal models. This measure could be appropriate for use in future research that deals with FDL, such as capital structure and the prevention of financial distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Pindado, Julio & Rodrigues, Luis & de la Torre, Chabela, 2008. "Estimating financial distress likelihood," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(9), pages 995-1003, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:61:y:2008:i:9:p:995-1003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148-2963(07)00328-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanz, Luis J. & Ayca, Julio, 2006. "Financial distress costs in Latin America: A case study," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 394-395, March.
    2. Michael C. Jensen, 2010. "Active Investors, LBOs, and the Privatization of Bankruptcy," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(1), pages 77-85, January.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Honore, Bo, 2001. "Panel data models: some recent developments," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 53, pages 3229-3296, Elsevier.
    4. Sean Cleary, 1999. "The Relationship between Firm Investment and Financial Status," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 673-692, April.
    5. Paul Asquith & Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 625-658.
    6. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    7. Edward Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2005. "Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank Capital Requirements for SMEs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 15-42, October.
    8. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    9. Kim, E Han, 1978. "A Mean-Variance Theory of Optimal Capital Structure and Corporate Debt Capacity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 45-63, March.
    10. Graham, John R., 1996. "Debt and the marginal tax rate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 41-73, May.
    11. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2005. "Do Firms Rebalance Their Capital Structures?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2575-2619, December.
    12. Julio Pindado & Luis F. Rodrigues, 2004. "Parsimonious Models of Financial Insolvency in Small Companies," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 51-66, February.
    13. Claessens, Stijn & Djankov, Simeon & Klapper, Leora, 2003. "Resolution of corporate distress in East Asia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 199-216, February.
    14. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    15. Wruck, Karen Hopper, 1990. "Financial distress, reorganization, and organizational efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 419-444, October.
    16. Bhagat, Sanjai & Moyen, Nathalie & Suh, Inchul, 2005. "Investment and internal funds of distressed firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 449-472, June.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1443-1493 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    19. MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K, 1990. "Do Taxes Affect Corporate Financing Decisions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1471-1493, December.
    20. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Grice, John Stephen & Dugan, Michael T, 2001. "The Limitations of Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Some Cautions for the Researcher," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 151-166, September.
    22. Richard Whitaker, 1999. "The early stages of financial distress," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 123-132, June.
    23. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    24. Perfect, Steven B. & Wiles, Kenneth W., 1994. "Alternative constructions of Tobin's q: An empirical comparison," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 313-341, July.
    25. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    26. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    27. Eisenbeis, Robert A, 1977. "Pitfalls in the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business, Finance, and Economics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 875-900, June.
    28. de Miguel, Alberto & Pindado, Julio, 2001. "Determinants of capital structure: new evidence from Spanish panel data," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-99, March.
    29. Denis, David J. & Mihov, Vassil T., 2003. "The choice among bank debt, non-bank private debt, and public debt: evidence from new corporate borrowings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 3-28, October.
    30. Joseph, George & Lipka, Roland, 2006. "Distressed firms and the secular deterioration in usefulness of accounting information," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 295-303, February.
    31. Altman, Edward I, 1984. "A Further Empirical Investigation of the Bankruptcy Cost Question," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1067-1089, September.
    32. Grice, John Stephen & Ingram, Robert W., 2001. "Tests of the generalizability of Altman's bankruptcy prediction model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 53-61, October.
    33. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Palepu, Krishna G., 1986. "Predicting takeover targets : A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-35, March.
    35. Nash, Robert C. & Netter, Jeffry M. & Poulsen, Annette B., 2003. "Determinants of contractual relations between shareholders and bondholders: investment opportunities and restrictive covenants," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 201-232, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu, Jin, 2012. "Profitability and capital structure: Evidence from import penetration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 427-446.
    2. John Nkwoma Inekwe, 2016. "Financial Distress, Employees’ Welfare and Entrepreneurship Among SMEs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1135-1153, December.
    3. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    4. Shoaib Ali & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Relationship between Credit Rating, Capital Structure and Earning Management Behaviour: Evidence from Pakistani Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:121, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    5. Bhanu Pratap Singh & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2016. "Re-estimation and comparisons of alternative accounting based bankruptcy prediction models for Indian companies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, December.
    6. Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2018. "Prediction of company failure: Past, present and promising directions for the future," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 196-208.
    7. Leila Bateni & Farshid Asghari, 2020. "Bankruptcy Prediction Using Logit and Genetic Algorithm Models: A Comparative Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 335-348, January.
    8. Andres, Christian & Cumming, Douglas & Karabiber, Timur & Schweizer, Denis, 2014. "Do markets anticipate capital structure decisions? — Feedback effects in equity liquidity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 133-156.
    9. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    10. Alexander Hölzl & Sebastian Lobe, 2016. "Predicting above-median and below-median growth rates," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 105-133, January.
    11. Feld, Lars P. & Heckemeyer, Jost H. & Overesch, Michael, 2013. "Capital structure choice and company taxation: A meta-study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2850-2866.
    12. Hong-Yi Chen & Cheng Few Lee & Tzu Tai, 2020. "The Joint Determinants of Capital Structure and Stock Rate of Return: A LISREL Model Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 35, pages 1345-1397, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Montserrat Manzaneque-Lizano & Esteban Alfaro-Cortés & Alba María Priego de la Cruz, 2019. "Stakeholders and Long-Term Sustainability of SMEs. Who Really Matters in Crisis Contexts, and When," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-27, November.
    14. Graham, John R., 1999. "Do personal taxes affect corporate financing decisions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-185, August.
    15. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
    16. Julio Pindado & Luis Rodrigues & Chabela Torre, 2006. "How does Financial Distress Affect Small Firms’ Financial Structure?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 377-391, May.
    17. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2019. "Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    19. Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    20. Viral Acharya & Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2012. "Cash Holdings and Credit Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3572-3609.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:61:y:2008:i:9:p:995-1003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.