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How should a local regime-switching model be calibrated?

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  • He, Xin-Jiang
  • Zhu, Song-Ping

Abstract

Local regime-switching models are a natural consequence of combining the concept of a local volatility model with that of a regime-switching model. However, even though Elliott et al. (2015) have derived a Dupire formula for a local regime-switching model, its calibration still remains a challenge, primarily due to the fact that the derived volatility function for each state involves all the state price variables whereas only one market price is available for model calibration, and a direct implementation of Elliott et al.’s formula may not yield stable results. In this paper, a closed system for option pricing and data extraction under the classical regime-switching model is proposed with a special approach, splitting one market price into two “market-implied state prices”. The success of our approach hinges on the recovery of the two local volatility functions being transformed into an optimal control problem, which is solved through the Tikhonov regularization. In addition, an efficient algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solution by iteration. Our numerical experiments show that different shapes of local volatility functions can be accurately and stably recovered with the newly-proposed algorithm, and this algorithm also works quite well with real market data.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Xin-Jiang & Zhu, Song-Ping, 2017. "How should a local regime-switching model be calibrated?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 149-163.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:149-163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.03.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Mesias Alfeus & Ludger Overbeck & Erik Schlögl, 2019. "Regime switching rough Heston model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 538-552, May.
    2. Mesias Alfeus, 2019. "Stochastic Modelling of New Phenomena in Financial Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2019, January-A.
    3. Lin, Sha & He, Xin-Jiang, 2020. "Pricing variance and volatility swaps with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rate and regime switching," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).
    4. Ben-Zhang Yang & Xin-Jiang He & Song-Ping Zhu, 2020. "Continuous time mean-variance-utility portfolio problem and its equilibrium strategy," Papers 2005.06782, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    5. repec:uts:finphd:41 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mesias Alfeus & Ludger Overbeck, 2018. "Regime Switching Rough Heston Model," Research Paper Series 387, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Siu, Chi Chung & Guo, Ivan & Zhu, Song-Ping & Elliott, Robert J., 2019. "Optimal execution with regime-switching market resilience," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 17-40.
    8. Xin‐Jiang He & Wenting Chen, 2021. "A semianalytical formula for European options under a hybrid Heston–Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model with regime switching," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 343-352, January.
    9. Zhang, Ziqing, 2024. "Multi-regime foreign exchange rate model: Calibration and pricing," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 204-218.
    10. Xin-Jiang He & Song-Ping Zhu, 2019. "Variance And Volatility Swaps Under A Two-Factor Stochastic Volatility Model With Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-19, June.
    11. Xin‐Jiang He & Sha Lin, 2023. "Analytically pricing European options under a hybrid stochastic volatility and interest rate model with a general correlation structure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 951-967, July.
    12. Robert J. Elliott & Tak Kuen Siu, 2023. "Hedging options in a hidden Markov‐switching local‐volatility model via stochastic flows and a Monte‐Carlo method," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 925-950, July.
    13. Xin‐Jiang He & Song‐Ping Zhu, 2018. "On full calibration of hybrid local volatility and regime‐switching models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 586-606, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local regime-switching model; Closed system; Optimal control problem; Tikhonov regularization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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