IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v169y2024ics0165188924001544.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The technological origins of the decline in labor market dynamism

Author

Listed:
  • Eeckhout, Jan
  • Weng, Xi

Abstract

In the last decades, there has been a marked decline in the job flows to and from unemployment and between employment. We ask whether and how technological change can account for his secular decline in labor market dynamism. We propose a theory that focuses on the determinants of technology broadly defined: 1. the complementarity between worker skill and firm productivity; and 2. the volatility in productivity shocks; and 3. search frictions. We derive job flows in a sorting model with search frictions and endogenous search effort both on and off the job, as well as shocks that lead to mismatch. We quantify our model using the US data and find an increase in the complementarity between labor and technology, a decline in the frequency and volatility of productivity shocks, and a decline in the match efficiency as well as an increase in the search costs. The changing nature of these features of the technology contributes to the secular decline in labor market dynamism.

Suggested Citation

  • Eeckhout, Jan & Weng, Xi, 2024. "The technological origins of the decline in labor market dynamism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:169:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924001544
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Fei Li & Xi Weng, 2017. "Efficient Learning And Job Turnover In The Labor Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 727-750, August.
    3. Carlos Carrillo‐Tudela & Ludo Visschers, 2023. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation Over the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 1119-1153, May.
    4. Jeremy Lise & Jean-Marc Robin, 2017. "The Macrodynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1104-1135, April.
    5. Fei Li & Xi Weng, 2017. "Efficient Learning And Job Turnover In The Labor Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 727-750, August.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8grh35j2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Rafael Lopes de Melo, 2018. "Firm Wage Differentials and Labor Market Sorting: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 313-346.
    8. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    9. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2295-2350, November.
    10. Ryan A. Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2016. "Declining Business Dynamism: What We Know and the Way Forward," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 203-207, May.
    11. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1999. "High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-334, March.
    12. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2017. "The Relative Power of Employment-to-Employment Reallocation and Unemployment Exits in Predicting Wage Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 364-368, May.
    13. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    14. Marcus Hagedorn & Tzuo Hann Law & Iourii Manovskii, 2017. "Identifying Equilibrium Models of Labor Market Sorting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 29-65, January.
    15. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2011. "Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 468-510.
    16. Jan Eeckhout & Philipp Kircher, 2010. "Sorting and Decentralized Price Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 539-574, March.
    17. Jan Eeckhout & Philipp Kircher, 2011. "Identifying Sorting--In Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(3), pages 872-906.
    18. Andreas I. Mueller, 2017. "Separations, Sorting, and Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 2081-2107, July.
    19. Robert C. Dent & Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2016. "The Role of Startups in Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 219-223, May.
    20. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Johannes Wieland, 2020. "Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2245-2287.
    21. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "Demographic Origins of the Start-up Deficit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 1986-2023, July.
    22. Jan Eeckhout & Ilse Lindenlaub, 2019. "Unemployment Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 175-234, October.
    23. Simon Mongey & Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout, 2021. "Quantifying Market Power and Business Dynamism in the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 1251, Barcelona School of Economics.
    24. Robert E. Hall & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
    25. Ryan Decker & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2014. "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    26. Pietro Garibaldi & Espen Moen & Dag-Einar Sommervoll, 2016. "Competitive On-the-job Search," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 88-107, January.
    27. Katarína Borovičková & Robert Shimer, 2017. "High Wage Workers Work for High Wage Firms," NBER Working Papers 24074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Bruce Fallick & Christopher L. Foote, 2022. "The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States," Working Papers 22-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    29. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Riccardo Trezzi & Abigail Wozniak, 2016. "Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 183-259.
    30. Bruce Fallick & Charles Fleischman & Jonathan Pingle, 2010. "The Effect of Population Aging on the Aggregate Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 377-417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Stéphane Bonhomme & Thibaut Lamadon & Elena Manresa, 2019. "A Distributional Framework for Matched Employer Employee Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 699-739, May.
    32. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    33. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    34. Edouard Schaal, 2017. "Uncertainty and Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85(6), pages 1675-1721, November.
    35. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2gm7u1h28o97arriihp43sr90l is not listed on IDEAS
    36. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985085gkbp is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Lochner & Bastian Schulz, 2024. "Firm Productivity, Wages, and Sorting," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 85-119.
    2. Rasmus Lentz & Jean Marc Robin & Suphanit Piyapromdee, 2018. "On Worker and Firm Heterogeneity in Wages and Employment Mobility: Evidence from Danish Register Data," 2018 Meeting Papers 469, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Banfi, Stefano & Choi, Sekyu & Villena-Roldán, Benjamín, 2022. "Sorting on-line and on-time," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Jason Sockin, 2022. "Show Me the Amenity: Are Higher-Paying Firms Better All Around?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9842, CESifo.
    5. Niklas Engbom & Christian Moser, 2022. "Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3803-3847, December.
    6. Andreas Gulyas, 2018. "Identifying Labor Market Sorting with Firm Dynamics," 2018 Meeting Papers 856, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Xiaoming Cai & Pieter Gautier & Ronald Wolthoff, 2021. "Search, Screening and Sorting," Working Papers tecipa-699, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    8. Annaïg Morin, 2023. "Workplace heterogeneity and wage inequality in Denmark," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 123-133, January.
    9. Rasmus Lentz & Suphanit Piyapromdee & Jean-Marc Robin, 2022. "The Anatomy of Sorting - Evidence from Danish Data," Working Papers hal-03869383, HAL.
    10. Andreas Gulyas & Krzysztof Pytka, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement: A Machine-Learning Approach," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_131, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    11. Hahn, Joyce K. & Hyatt, Henry R. & Janicki, Hubert P., 2021. "Job ladders and growth in earnings, hours, and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Leland D. Crane, 2014. "Firm Dynamics and Assortative Matching," Working Papers 14-25, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    13. Freund, L. B., 2022. "Superstar Teams: The Micro Origins and Macro Implications of Coworker Complementarities," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2235, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Jacob Schwartz, 2018. "Schooling Choice, Labour Market Matching, and Wages," Papers 1803.09020, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    15. Papageorgiou, Theodore, 2018. "Large firms and within firm occupational reallocation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 184-223.
    16. Alon, Titan & Berger, David & Dent, Robert & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2018. "Older and slower: The startup deficit’s lasting effects on aggregate productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 68-85.
    17. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso & Joerg Heining & Patrick Kline, 2018. "Firms and Labor Market Inequality: Evidence and Some Theory," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(S1), pages 13-70.
    18. Moser, Christian, 2016. "How Could Wage Inequality Within and Across Enterprises be Reduced?," MPRA Paper 95381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Filippo Biondi & Sergio Inferrera & Matthias Mertens & Javier Miranda, 2023. "Declining Business Dynamism in Europe: The Role of Shocks, Market Power, and Technology," Jena Economics Research Papers 2023-011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:169:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001544. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.