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Spatio-temporal chaos and clustering induced by nonlocal information and vaccine hesitancy in the SIR epidemic model

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  • Banerjee, Malay
  • Ghosh, Samiran
  • Manfredi, Piero
  • d’Onofrio, Alberto

Abstract

Human behavior, and in particular vaccine hesitancy, is a critical factor for the control of childhood infectious disease. Here we propose a spatio-temporal behavioral epidemiology model where the vaccine propensity depends on information that is non-local in space and in time. The properties of the proposed model are analyzed under different hypotheses on the spatio-temporal kernels tuning the vaccination response of individuals. As a main result, we could numerically show that vaccine hesitancy induces the onset of many dynamic patterns of relevance for epidemiology. In particular we observed: behavior-modulated patterns and spatio-temporal chaos. This is the first known example of human behavior-induced spatio-temporal chaos in statistical physics of vaccination. Patterns and spatio-temporal chaos are difficult to deal with, from the Public Health viewpoint, hence showing that vaccine hesitancy can cause them could be of interest. Additionally, we propose a new simple heuristic algorithm to estimate the Maximum Lyapunov Exponent.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Malay & Ghosh, Samiran & Manfredi, Piero & d’Onofrio, Alberto, 2023. "Spatio-temporal chaos and clustering induced by nonlocal information and vaccine hesitancy in the SIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:170:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923002400
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomas Philipson, 1996. "Private Vaccination and Public Health: An Empirical Examination for U.S. Measles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(3), pages 611-630.
    2. Giannerini Simone & Rosa Rodolfo, 2004. "Assessing Chaos in Time Series: Statistical Aspects and Perspectives," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-25, May.
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    1. Heping Wen & Shenghao Kang & Zhuxi Wu & Yiting Lin & Yiming Huang, 2023. "Dynamic RNA Coding Color Image Cipher Based on Chain Feedback Structure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-17, July.

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