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Social Response and Measles Dynamics

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  • Atinuke O. Adebanji

    (Department for Statistics & Actuarial Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi AK-448-4924, Ghana)

  • Franz Aschl

    (School for Computation, Information and Technology, TU München (TUM), 80333 Munich, Germany)

  • Ednah Chepkemoi Chumo

    (School of Sciences & Aerospace Studies, Department of Mathematics, Physics & Computing, Moi University, Eldoret 30107, Kenya)

  • Emmanuel Odame Owiredu

    (Department for Statistics & Actuarial Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST), Kumasi AK-448-4924, Ghana)

  • Johannes Müller

    (School for Computation, Information and Technology, TU München (TUM), 80333 Munich, Germany
    Institute for Computational Biology, Helmholtz Center Munich, 85764 Munich, Germany)

  • Tukae Mbegalo

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, Mzumbe University, Morogoro P.O. Box 1, Tanzania)

Abstract

Measles remains one of the leading causes of death among young children globally, even though a safe and cost-effective vaccine is available. Vaccine hesitancy and social response to vaccination continue to undermine efforts to eradicate measles. In this study, we consider data about measles vaccination and measles prevalence in Germany for the years 2008–2012 in 345 districts. In the first part of the paper, we show that the probability of a local outbreak does not significantly depend on the vaccination coverage, but—if an outbreak does take place—the scale of the outbreak depends significantly on the vaccination coverage. Additionally, we show that the willingness to be vaccinated is significantly increased by local outbreaks, with a delay of about one year. In the second part of the paper, we consider a deterministic delay model to investigate the consequences of the statistical findings on the dynamics of the infection. Here, we find that the delay might induce oscillations if the vaccination coverage is rather low and the social response to an outbreak is sufficiently strong. The relevance of our findings is discussed at the end of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Atinuke O. Adebanji & Franz Aschl & Ednah Chepkemoi Chumo & Emmanuel Odame Owiredu & Johannes Müller & Tukae Mbegalo, 2023. "Social Response and Measles Dynamics," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jstats:v:6:y:2023:i:4:p:79-1297:d:1290503
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomas Philipson, 1996. "Private Vaccination and Public Health: An Empirical Examination for U.S. Measles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(3), pages 611-630.
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