IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v159y2022ics0960077922003204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The influence of quadratic Lévy noise on the dynamic of an SIC contagious illness model: New framework, critical comparison and an application to COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) case

Author

Listed:
  • Sabbar, Yassine
  • Kiouach, Driss
  • Rajasekar, S.P.
  • El-idrissi, Salim El Azami

Abstract

This study concentrates on the analysis of a stochastic SIC epidemic system with an enhanced and general perturbation. Given the intricacy of some impulses caused by external disturbances, we integrate the quadratic Lévy noise into our model. We assort the long-run behavior of a perturbed SIC epidemic model presented in the form of a system of stochastic differential equations driven by second-order jumps. By ameliorating the hypotheses and using some new analytical techniques, we find the exact threshold value between extinction and ergodicity (persistence) of our system. The idea and analysis used in this paper generalize the work of N. T. Dieu et al. (2020), and offer an innovative approach to dealing with other random population models. Comparing our results with those of previous studies reveals that quadratic jump-diffusion has no impact on the threshold value, but it remarkably influences the dynamics of the infection and may worsen the pandemic situation. In order to illustrate this comparison and confirm our analysis, we perform numerical simulations with some real data of COVID-19 in Morocco. Furthermore, we arrive at the following results: (i) the time average of the different classes depends on the intensity of the noise (ii) the quadratic noise has a negative effect on disease duration (iii) the stationary density function of the population abruptly changes its shape at some values of the noise intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabbar, Yassine & Kiouach, Driss & Rajasekar, S.P. & El-idrissi, Salim El Azami, 2022. "The influence of quadratic Lévy noise on the dynamic of an SIC contagious illness model: New framework, critical comparison and an application to COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) case," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:159:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922003204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077922003204
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112110?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akdim, Khadija & Ez-zetouni, Adil & Danane, Jaouad & Allali, Karam, 2020. "Stochastic viral infection model with lytic and nonlytic immune responses driven by Lévy noise," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    2. Cheng, Yan & Li, Mingtao & Zhang, Fumin, 2019. "A dynamics stochastic model with HIV infection of CD4+ T-cells driven by Lévy noise," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 62-70.
    3. Xi, Fubao, 2009. "Asymptotic properties of jump-diffusion processes with state-dependent switching," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(7), pages 2198-2221, July.
    4. Huaixing Li & Jiaoyan Wang, 2021. "Global Dynamics of an SEIR Model with the Age of Infection and Vaccination," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Lv, Xuejin & Meng, Xinzhu & Wang, Xinzeng, 2018. "Extinction and stationary distribution of an impulsive stochastic chemostat model with nonlinear perturbation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 273-279.
    6. Peng, Shige & Zhu, Xuehong, 2006. "Necessary and sufficient condition for comparison theorem of 1-dimensional stochastic differential equations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 370-380, March.
    7. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Ahmad, Bashir, 2018. "Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic predator–prey model with additional food and nonlinear perturbation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 226-239.
    8. Tong, Jinying & Zhang, Zhenzhong & Bao, Jianhai, 2013. "The stationary distribution of the facultative population model with a degenerate noise," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 655-664.
    9. Hussain, Ghulam & Khan, Amir & Zahri, Mostafa & Zaman, Gul, 2020. "Stochastic permanence of an epidemic model with a saturated incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Roy, Manojit & Holt, Robert D., 2008. "Effects of predation on host–pathogen dynamics in SIR models," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 319-331.
    11. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Ahmad, Bashir, 2017. "Periodic solution and stationary distribution of stochastic SIR epidemic models with higher order perturbation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 209-217.
    12. Spagnolo, B. & La Barbera, A., 2002. "Role of the noise on the transient dynamics of an ecosystem of interacting species," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 315(1), pages 114-124.
    13. Rajasekar, S.P. & Pitchaimani, M., 2020. "Ergodic stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with logistic growth and nonlinear incidence," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 377(C).
    14. Zhou, Yanli & Zhang, Weiguo, 2016. "Threshold of a stochastic SIR epidemic model with Lévy jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 446(C), pages 204-216.
    15. NicolaBruti-Liberati & Eckhard Platen, 2007. "Strong approximations of stochastic differential equations with jumps," Published Paper Series 2007-7, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Driss Kiouach & Yassine Sabbar, 2018. "Stability and Threshold of a Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Model with Vertical Transmission and Transfer from Infectious to Susceptible Individuals," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-13, May.
    17. Rajasekar, S.P. & Pitchaimani, M. & Zhu, Quanxin, 2019. "Dynamic threshold probe of stochastic SIR model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    18. Leonid Shaikhet, 2020. "Improving Stability Conditions for Equilibria of SIR Epidemic Model with Delay under Stochastic Perturbations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-13, August.
    19. Gao, Miaomiao & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2019. "Threshold behavior of a stochastic Lotka–Volterra food chain chemostat model with jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 191-203.
    20. S. P. Rajasekar & M. Pitchaimani & Quanxin Zhu & Kaibo Shi, 2021. "Exploring the Stochastic Host-Pathogen Tuberculosis Model with Adaptive Immune Response," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-23, June.
    21. Han, Bingtao & Zhou, Baoquan & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2021. "Stationary solution, extinction and density function for a high-dimensional stochastic SEI epidemic model with general distributed delay," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 405(C).
    22. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Shi, Ningzhong & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2017. "Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 510-517.
    23. Tornatore, Elisabetta & Maria Buccellato, Stefania & Vetro, Pasquale, 2005. "Stability of a stochastic SIR system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 111-126.
    24. Zhao, Dianli & Yuan, Sanling, 2018. "Sharp conditions for the existence of a stationary distribution in one classical stochastic chemostat," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 339(C), pages 199-205.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sabbar, Yassine & Din, Anwarud & Kiouach, Driss, 2023. "Influence of fractal–fractional differentiation and independent quadratic Lévy jumps on the dynamics of a general epidemic model with vaccination strategy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Yassine Sabbar & Asad Khan & Anwarud Din, 2022. "Probabilistic Analysis of a Marine Ecological System with Intense Variability," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Yassine Sabbar & Mohammad Izadi & Aeshah A. Raezah & Waleed Adel, 2024. "Nonlinear Dynamics of a General Stochastic SIR Model with Behavioral and Physical Changes: Analysis and Application to Zoonotic Tuberculosis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Elaiw, A.M. & Alsaedi, A.J. & Hobiny, A.D. & Aly, S., 2023. "Stability of a delayed SARS-CoV-2 reactivation model with logistic growth and adaptive immune response," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 616(C).
    5. Ye, Yong & Zhao, Yi & Zhou, Jiaying, 2022. "Promotion of cooperation mechanism on the stability of delay-induced host-generalist parasitoid model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yassine Sabbar & Mehmet Yavuz & Fatma Özköse, 2022. "Infection Eradication Criterion in a General Epidemic Model with Logistic Growth, Quarantine Strategy, Media Intrusion, and Quadratic Perturbation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(22), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Sabbar, Yassine & Din, Anwarud & Kiouach, Driss, 2023. "Influence of fractal–fractional differentiation and independent quadratic Lévy jumps on the dynamics of a general epidemic model with vaccination strategy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Ahmad, Bashir, 2020. "Dynamical behavior of a higher order stochastically perturbed SIRI epidemic model with relapse and media coverage," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Zhou, Baoquan & Han, Bingtao & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2021. "Ergodic stationary distribution and extinction of a hybrid stochastic SEQIHR epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine strategies and pre-existing immunity under discrete Markov switching," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 410(C).
    5. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing, 2020. "Dynamical behavior of a higher order stochastically perturbed HIV/AIDS model with differential infectivity and amelioration," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Chen, Xingzhi & Xu, Xin & Tian, Baodan & Li, Dong & Yang, Dan, 2022. "Dynamics of a stochastic delayed chemostat model with nutrient storage and Lévy jumps," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1).
    7. Lu, Chun & Liu, Honghui & Zhang, De, 2021. "Dynamics and simulations of a second order stochastically perturbed SEIQV epidemic model with saturated incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    8. Yassine Sabbar & Asad Khan & Anwarud Din, 2022. "Probabilistic Analysis of a Marine Ecological System with Intense Variability," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2019. "Stationary distribution of a regime-switching predator–prey model with anti-predator behaviour and higher-order perturbations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 199-210.
    10. Zhou, Baoquan & Han, Bingtao & Jiang, Daqing, 2021. "Ergodic property, extinction and density function of a stochastic SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and general stochastic perturbations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Rajasekar, S.P. & Pitchaimani, M., 2020. "Ergodic stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with logistic growth and nonlinear incidence," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 377(C).
    12. Fu, Xiaoming, 2019. "On invariant measures and the asymptotic behavior of a stochastic delayed SIRS epidemic model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1008-1023.
    13. Wen, Buyu & Teng, Zhidong & Li, Zhiming, 2018. "The threshold of a periodic stochastic SIVS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 532-549.
    14. Saha, Pritam & Mondal, Bapin & Ghosh, Uttam, 2023. "Dynamical behaviors of an epidemic model with partial immunity having nonlinear incidence and saturated treatment in deterministic and stochastic environments," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    15. Cao, Zhongwei & Feng, Wei & Wen, Xiangdan & Zu, Li, 2019. "Dynamical behavior of a stochastic SEI epidemic model with saturation incidence and logistic growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 894-907.
    16. Kiouach, Driss & El-idrissi, Salim El Azami & Sabbar, Yassine, 2023. "An improvement of the extinction sufficient conditions for a higher-order stochastically disturbed AIDS/HIV model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 447(C).
    17. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2018. "Long-time behavior of a stochastic logistic equation with distributed delay and nonlinear perturbation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 289-304.
    18. Wang, Qi & Xiang, Kainan & Zhu, Chunhui & Zou, Lang, 2023. "Stochastic SEIR epidemic models with virus mutation and logistic growth of susceptible populations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 289-309.
    19. Zhao, Xin & Liu, Lidan & Liu, Meng & Fan, Meng, 2024. "Stochastic dynamics of coral reef system with stage-structure for crown-of-thorns starfish," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    20. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing, 2020. "Threshold behavior in a stochastic SIR epidemic model with Logistic birth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:159:y:2022:i:c:s0960077922003204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.