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Effects of predation on host–pathogen dynamics in SIR models

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  • Roy, Manojit
  • Holt, Robert D.

Abstract

The integration of infectious disease epidemiology with community ecology is an active area of research. Recent studies using SI models without acquired immunity have demonstrated that predation can suppress infectious disease levels. The authors recently showed that incorporating immunity (SIR models) can produce a “hump†-shaped relationship between disease prevalence and predation pressure; thus, low to moderate levels of predation can boost prevalence in hosts with acquired immunity. Here we examine the robustness of this pattern to realistic extensions of a basic SIR model, including density-dependent host regulation, predator saturation, interference, frequency-dependent transmission, predator numerical responses, and explicit resource dynamics. A non-monotonic relationship between disease prevalence and predation pressure holds across all these scenarios. With saturation, there can also be complex responses of mean host abundance to increasing predation, as well as bifurcations leading to unstable cycles (epidemics) and pathogen extinction at larger predator numbers. Firm predictions about the relationship between prevalence and predation thus require one to consider the complex interplay of acquired immunity, host regulation, and foraging behavior of the predator.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy, Manojit & Holt, Robert D., 2008. "Effects of predation on host–pathogen dynamics in SIR models," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 319-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:73:y:2008:i:3:p:319-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2007.12.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Greg Dwyer & Jonathan Dushoff & Susan Harrell Yee, 2004. "The combined effects of pathogens and predators on insect outbreaks," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6997), pages 341-345, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. El Fatini, M. & Taki, R. & Tridane, A., 2019. "Threshold behaviour of a stochastic epidemic model with two-dimensional noises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 776-786.
    2. Zhou, Baoquan & Han, Bingtao & Jiang, Daqing, 2021. "Ergodic property, extinction and density function of a stochastic SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and general stochastic perturbations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Sabbar, Yassine & Kiouach, Driss & Rajasekar, S.P. & El-idrissi, Salim El Azami, 2022. "The influence of quadratic Lévy noise on the dynamic of an SIC contagious illness model: New framework, critical comparison and an application to COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) case," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Ali, Ishtiaq & Ullah Khan, Sami, 2020. "Analysis of stochastic delayed SIRS model with exponential birth and saturated incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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