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Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information

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  • Se Yoon Lee
  • Bowen Lei
  • Bani Mallick

Abstract

Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no drugs or other therapeutics approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to prevent or treat COVID-19: information on the disease is very limited and scattered even if it exists. This motivates the use of data integration, combining data from diverse sources and eliciting useful information with a unified view of them. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that integrates global data for real-time prediction of infection trajectory for multiple countries. Because the proposed model takes advantage of borrowing information across multiple countries, it outperforms an existing individual country-based model. As fully Bayesian way has been adopted, the model provides a powerful predictive tool endowed with uncertainty quantification. Additionally, a joint variable selection technique has been integrated into the proposed modeling scheme, which aimed to identify possible country-level risk factors for severe disease due to COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Se Yoon Lee & Bowen Lei & Bani Mallick, 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0236860
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236860
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Yisheng Li & Xihong Lin & Peter Müller, 2010. "Bayesian Inference in Semiparametric Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 70-78, March.
    3. Kahm, Matthias & Hasenbrink, Guido & Lichtenberg-Fraté, Hella & Ludwig, Jost & Kschischo, Maik, 2010. "grofit: Fitting Biological Growth Curves with R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i07).
    4. Yaesoubi, Reza & Cohen, Ted, 2011. "Generalized Markov models of infectious disease spread: A novel framework for developing dynamic health policies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 679-687, December.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Modelling > Statistical Modelling

    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Alemán & Christopher Busch & Alexander Ludwig & Raül Santaeulà lia-Llopis, 2020. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic," Working Papers 2020-078, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Demetrius E. Davos & Ioannis C. Demetriou, 2022. "Convex-Concave fitting to successively updated data and its application to covid-19 analysis," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 3233-3262, December.
    4. Lin, Jilei & Eck, Daniel J., 2021. "Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1710-1727.
    5. Stef Baas & Sander Dijkstra & Aleida Braaksma & Plom Rooij & Fieke J. Snijders & Lars Tiemessen & Richard J. Boucherie, 2021. "Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 bed occupancy in wards and Intensive Care Units," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 402-419, June.
    6. Daniele Lilleri & Federica Zavaglio & Elisa Gabanti & Giuseppe Gerna & Eloisa Arbustini, 2020. "Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy: The role of local and interventional factors in the control of the epidemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-12, November.
    7. Dijkstra, Sander & Baas, Stef & Braaksma, Aleida & Boucherie, Richard J., 2023. "Dynamic fair balancing of COVID-19 patients over hospitals based on forecasts of bed occupancy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Ángel Berihuete & Marta Sánchez-Sánchez & Alfonso Suárez-Llorens, 2021. "A Bayesian Model of COVID-19 Cases Based on the Gompertz Curve," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Se Yoon Lee, 2022. "Bayesian Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data: An Overview, Implementation, and Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-51, March.
    10. Se Yoon Lee & Bani K. Mallick, 2022. "Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling: Application Towards Production Results in the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 84(1), pages 1-43, May.
    11. Pelinovsky, E. & Kokoulina, M. & Epifanova, A. & Kurkin, A. & Kurkina, O. & Tang, M. & Macau, E. & Kirillin, M., 2022. "Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Jesus Cerquides, 2021. "A First Approach to Closeness Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-12, December.

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