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The medium-run effect of China's higher education expansion on the unemployment of college graduates

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  • Xing, Chunbing
  • Yang, Peng
  • Li, Zhilong

Abstract

China's unemployment rate for new college graduates has increased significantly in recent years, and many people attribute this increase to the higher education expansion policy. In this paper, we use three nationally representative data sets for 2000, 2005, and 2010 to investigate the short and medium term effects of the expansion policy on the unemployment of college graduates. Treating higher education expansion as an exogenous shock and using a difference-in-difference (DID) strategy, we find that this policy increased the unemployment rate of new college graduates in the short run, but the unemployment rate kept declining and the dis-employment effect mostly disappeared after five years. We also find some heterogeneous effects by gender, region, and city.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing, Chunbing & Yang, Peng & Li, Zhilong, 2018. "The medium-run effect of China's higher education expansion on the unemployment of college graduates," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 181-193.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:51:y:2018:i:c:p:181-193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.05.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Tianshu Chu & Qiang Wen, 2019. "Does College Education Promote Entrepreneurship in China?," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 463-486, December.
    4. Fengyan Dai & Fang Cai & Yu Zhu, 2022. "Returns to higher education in China – evidence from the 1999 higher education expansion using a fuzzy regression discontinuity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 489-494, March.
    5. Zhu, Chen & Qiu, Zhiyi & Liu, Fengjun, 2021. "Does innovation stimulate employment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1007-1017.
    6. Somani, Ravi, 2021. "The returns to higher education and public employment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Huang, Bin & Zhu, Yu, 2020. "Higher Education Expansion, the Hukou System, and Returns to Education in China," IZA Discussion Papers 12954, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Feng, Yanxiang & Tan, Xinyang & Wang, Ruixin, 2022. "The value of higher education to entrepreneurial performance: Evidence from higher education expansion in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Hao, Zedong & Wang, Yun, 2022. "Education signaling, effort investments, and the market's expectations: Theory and experiment on China's higher education expansion," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Xiaoling Song & Jiaqi Li & Xueke Wu, 2024. "Financial inclusion, education, and employment: empirical evidence from 101 countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Huang, Bin & Tani, Massimiliano & Wei, Yi & Zhu, Yu, 2022. "Returns to education in China: Evidence from the great higher education expansion," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Wei Si, 2022. "Higher education expansion and gender norms: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1821-1858, October.
    13. Kong, Dongmin & Zhang, Bohui & Zhang, Jian, 2022. "Higher education and corporate innovation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Piracha, Matloob & Tani, Massimiliano & Zimmermann, Klaus F. & Zhang, Yu, 2022. "Higher education expansion and the rise of China in economics research," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Duan, Yide & Zhang, Haotian & Wang, Wenfu & Ao, Xiaoyan, 2022. "The effects of China's higher education expansion on urban and rural intergenerational mobility," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Qiao Wen, 2022. "Estimating Education and Labor Market Consequences of China’s Higher Education Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-25, June.
    17. Hu, Chenxu & Bollinger, Christopher, 2021. "Effects of cohort size on college premium: Evidence from China's higher education expansion," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    18. Tian, Xinping & Gong, Jinquan & Zhai, Zhe, 2022. "The effect of job displacement on labor market outcomes: Evidence from the Chinese state-owned enterprise reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Liu, Xingfei & Wang, Chuhong & Yan, Zizhong & Zhao, Yi, 2022. "Higher Education Expansion and Crime: New Evidence from China," Working Papers 2022-2, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    20. Ziyao Huang & Fang Yang, 2024. "Macroeconomic Impacts of College Expansion on Structural Transformation and Energy Economy in China: A Heterogeneous Agent General Equilibrium Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-31, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Higher education; Unemployment; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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