IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/growch/v46y2015i4p529-557.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy J. Bartik

Abstract

This article estimates how effects of local labor demand shocks on labor market outcomes vary with the initial local unemployment rate, which has not been previously studied. The data are on 23 large U.S. metro areas from 1979 to 2011. The article finds that demand shocks to local job growth have greater effects in increasing real wages if the local economy initially has low unemployment. However, demand shocks have greater effects in reducing unemployment, and increasing labor force participation, if the local economy initially has high unemployment, although these differences are only of modest statistical significance. The estimates are based on a new econometric approach to determining the correct dynamic structure for how local labor markets respond to demand shocks. This new approach finds that demand shocks have persistent effects on labor force participation and real wages, but not on unemployment, which contradicts some previous research.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Bartik, 2015. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 529-557, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:46:y:2015:i:4:p:529-557
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/grow.12101
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tani, Massimiliano, 2003. "Have Europeans become more mobile? A note on regional evolutions in the EU: 1988-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 23-30, July.
    2. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Lourens Broersma & Jouke van Dijk, 2002. "Regional labour market dynamics in the Netherlands," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 343-364.
    4. Timothy J. Bartik, "undated". "The Effects of Metropolitan Job Growth on the Size Distribution of Family Income," Upjohn Working Papers tjb1994jrs, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    5. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2006. "An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(4), pages 958-980, April.
    6. Timothy J. Bartik, "undated". "Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or Original Residents?," Upjohn Working Papers tjb1993rs, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    7. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, July.
    8. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & David Powell, 2013. "The Effect of Local Labor Demand Conditions on the Labor Supply Outcomes of Older Americans," Discussion Papers 13-014, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Jimeno, Juan F. & Bentolila, Samuel, 1998. "Regional unemployment persistence (Spain, 1976-1994)," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 25-51, March.
    10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    11. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    12. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    13. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    14. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    15. Sari Pekkala & Aki Kangasharju, 2002. "Regional labor markets in Finland: Adjustment to total versus region-specific shocks," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 329-342.
    16. Bartik, Timothy J., 1996. "The Distributional Effects of Local Labor Demand and Industrial Mix: Estimates Using Individual Panel Data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 150-178, September.
    17. Andrew M. Isserman & James Westervelt, 2006. "1.5 Million Missing Numbers: Overcoming Employment Suppression in County Business Patterns Data," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(3), pages 311-335, July.
    18. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    19. Fredriksson, Peter, 1999. "The Dynamics of Regional Labor Markets and Active Labor Market Policy: Swedish Evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 623-648, October.
    20. Beaudry, Paul & Green, David A. & Sand, Benjamin M., 2014. "Spatial equilibrium with unemployment and wage bargaining: Theory and estimation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 2-19.
    21. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    22. Gary L. Hunt, 2006. "Population–Employment Models: Stationarity, Cointegration, and Dynamic Adjustment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 205-244, May.
    23. Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2012. "Migration, housing market, and labor market responses to employment shocks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 267-284.
    24. Stephen T. Marston, 1985. "Two Views of the Geographic Distribution of Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(1), pages 57-79.
    25. Rowthorn Robert & Glyn Andrew J, 2006. "Convergence and Stability in U.S. Employment Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43, April.
    26. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    27. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen Mullen & David Powell, 2013. "The Effect of Local Labor Demand Conditions on the Labor Supply Outcomes of Older Americans," Discussion Papers 13-014, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    28. Saks, Raven E., 2008. "Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 178-195, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brad Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2024. "The Evolution of Local Labor Markets after Recessions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 399-435, July.
    2. Timothy J. Bartik, 2020. "Using Place-Based Jobs Policies to Help Distressed Communities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 99-127, Summer.
    3. Benjamin Austin & Edward Glaeser & Lawrence Summers, 2018. "Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st-Century America," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 151-255.
    4. Timothy J. Bartik, 2015. "The Social Value of Job Loss and Its Effect on the Costs of U.S. Environmental Regulations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 179-197.
    5. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Malacrino, Davide & McQuade, Tim, 2022. "Who creates new firms when local opportunities arise?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 107-130.
    6. Andersen, Asbjørn Goul & Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut, 2019. "Local labor demand and participation in social insurance programs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Roberta Moraes Rocha & Breno Caldas Araújo, 2021. "Local multiplier effect of the tradable sector on the Brazilian labor market," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 269-286, December.
    8. Timothy J. Bartik & Nathan Sotherland, 2019. "Local Job Multipliers in the United States: Variation with Local Characteristics and with High-Tech Shocks," Upjohn Working Papers 19-301, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    9. Hershbein, Brad & Stuart, Bryan A., 2023. "Place-based consequences of person-based transfers: Evidence from recessions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    10. Ryan M. Gallagher & Joseph Persky, 2020. "Heterogeneity of birth‐state effects on internal migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 517-537, June.
    11. Bartik, Timothy J., 2024. "Long-run effects on county employment rates of demand shocks to county and commuting zone employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. Brad J. Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2020. "Recessions and Local Labor Market Hysteresis," Upjohn Working Papers 20-325, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    2. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Hood, Kyle K., 2016. "Worker migration or job creation? Persistent shocks and regional recoveries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2009. "Labour market flexibility and regional unemployment rate dynamics: Spain 1980–1995," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 181-207, March.
    4. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    5. Sanna‐Mari Hynninen & Aki Kangasharju & Jaakko Pehkonen, 2009. "Matching Inefficiencies, Regional Disparities, and Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(3), pages 481-506, September.
    6. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2014. "Spanish Regional Unemployment Revisited: The Role of Capital Accumulation," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1863-1883, November.
    7. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2011. "The NRU and the Evolution of Regional Disparities in Spanish Unemployment," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0043, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    8. Détang-Dessendre, Cécile & Partridge, Mark D. & Piguet, Virginie, 2016. "Local labor market flexibility in a perceived low migration country: The case of French labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 89-103.
    9. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Ali, Kamar, 2012. "Dwindling U.S. internal migration: Evidence of spatial equilibrium or structural shifts in local labor markets?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 375-388.
    10. Medina, Daniel & Morales, Leonardo Fabio, 2019. "Labour market fluidity and employment outcomes in Colombia: evidence from employer-employee linked data," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    11. Daniel A. Broxterman & William D. Larson, 2020. "An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 677-711, September.
    12. Timothy J. Bartik, 2020. "Using Place-Based Jobs Policies to Help Distressed Communities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 99-127, Summer.
    13. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Ying Tan & M. Rose Olfert, 2015. "U.S. Regional Poverty Post-2000," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 29(1), pages 38-48, February.
    14. Macartney, Hugh & Nielsen, Eric & Rodriguez, Viviana, 2021. "Unequal worker exposure to establishment deaths," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    16. Bryan A. Stuart, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 42-74, January.
    17. Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Borja & Larrain, Mauricio & Prem, Mounu, 2021. "The internal labor markets of business groups," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Hector Sala & Pedro Trivín, 2014. "Labour market dynamics in Spanish regions: evaluating asymmetries in troublesome times," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 197-221, August.
    19. Betz, Michael R. & Partridge, Mark D. & Farren, Michael & Lobao, Linda, 2015. "Coal mining, economic development, and the natural resources curse," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-116.
    20. Ulrike Malmendier & Leslie Sheng Shen, 2024. "Scarred Consumption," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 322-355, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:46:y:2015:i:4:p:529-557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0017-4815 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.