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The global recession and China's stimulus package: A general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts

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  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Zhang, Yumei
  • Chen, Kevin Z.

Abstract

A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to assess the impact of the recent global recession and the Chinese government's stimulus package on China's economic growth. By designing two scenarios – one with and one without the stimulus package – the model results show that GDP growth rate in 2009 could have fallen to 2.9% without the stimulus package, mainly as a result of the sharp decline in exports of manufactured goods. Under the stimulus scenario, with the generated additional demand on investment goods, the Chinese economy grows 8–10% in 2009 and the succeeding years. The model also measures the overall gains of the stimulus package, and the cumulative GDP growth difference between the two scenarios for 2009–15 is about RMB76 trillion.

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen & Zhang, Yumei & Chen, Kevin Z., 2012. "The global recession and China's stimulus package: A general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:23:y:2012:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2011.05.005
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    2. Chen, Quanrun & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart & Yang, Cuihong, 2016. "Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input–output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 52-63.
    3. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2015. "Assessing the impact of the Chinese stimulus package at home and abroad: A damp squib?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-162.
    4. Huang, Zhonghua & Du, Xuejun, 2018. "Holding the market under the stimulus plan: Local government financing vehicles' land purchasing behavior in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-100.
    5. Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Livia Chatzieleftheriou & Arsenios‐Georgios N. Prelorentzos, 2022. "Crisis and the Chinese miracle: A network—GVAR model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 900-921, July.
    6. Zhang, Yumei & Diao, Xinshen, 2020. "The changing role of agriculture with economic structural change – The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Wu, Haitao & Hao, Yu & Weng, Jia-Hsi, 2019. "How does energy consumption affect China's urbanization? New evidence from dynamic threshold panel models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 24-38.
    8. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Budy P. Resosudarmo & Abdurohman & Arief A. Yusuf & Djoni Hartono, 2021. "Spatial impacts of fiscal stimulus policies during the 2009 global financial crisis in Indonesia," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 305-326, February.
    10. Li, Bin & Liang, Yilan & Shahab, Yasir & Gull, Ammar Ali & Ashraf, Naeem, 2022. "Parent-subsidiary dispersion, cost of debt and debt default: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
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    12. Bao, Qin & Yang, Xiaoguang, 2013. "Impacts of the Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis for China: A CGE Analysis," Conference papers 332338, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global financial crisis; China's stimulus package; General equilibrium modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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