IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/866.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economywide impact of avian flu in Ghana: A dynamic CGE model analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Diao, Xinshen

Abstract

"We use a dynamic CGE model to quantitatively assess the economywide impact of HPAI in Ghana. The likely effect of an avian flu outbreak is modeled as demand or supply shocks to the poultry sector. Our analysis shows that, while chicken is a quite small sector of the Ghanaian economy, the shock in chicken demand due to consumers' anxieties is the dominant factor in causing chicken production to fall. The indirect effect on soybean and maize that are used as chicken feed is also large. Under the worst-case scenario, soybean production will fall by 37 percent and maize by 6.4 percent. However, the economywide impact on both AgGDP and GDP is very small. In the worst-case scenario, in which chicken production falls by 70 percent in 2011, AgGDP falls by only 0.4 percent and GDP is almost unchanged. However, the livelihood impacts of a HPAI outbreak could be significant for some sections of the population in Ghana particularly those involved in the poultry sector. Micro-level analysis of chicken producers' livelihood, therefore, is necessary." from authors' abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen, 2009. "Economywide impact of avian flu in Ghana: A dynamic CGE model analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 866, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00866.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandre Gohin, 2005. "The specification of price and income elasticities in computable general equilibrium models : an application of latent separability," Post-Print hal-01931546, HAL.
    2. Vanzetti, David, 2007. "Chicken Supreme: How the Indonesian Poultry Sector Can Survive Avian Influenza," 2007 Conference (51st), February 13-16, 2007, Queenstown, New Zealand 10384, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 514-525, March.
    4. Gohin, Alexandre, 2005. "The specification of price and income elasticities in computable general equilibrium models: An application of latent separability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 905-925, September.
    5. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2005. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 429-450, April.
    6. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    7. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James & Yu, Bingxin & Kolavalli, Shashidhara, 2008. "Accelerating growth and structural transformation: Ghana's options for reaching middle-income country status," IFPRI discussion papers 750, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Robert P. King & Derek Byerlee, 1978. "Factor Intensities and Locational Linkages of Rural Consumption Patterns in Sierra Leone," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(2), pages 197-206.
    9. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2006. "The role of agriculture in development: implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," DSGD discussion papers 29, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James & Al-Hassan, Ramatu M., 2008. "Agriculture for development in Ghana: New opportunities and challenges," IFPRI discussion papers 784, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Unknown, 2001. "General Discussion," Proceedings of the 6th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 2000: Trade Liberalization Under NAFTA: Report Card on Agriculture 16839, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2013. "The impact of avian flu on livelihood outcomes in Africa: evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Julie L Elser & Laura L Bigler & Aaron M Anderson & Joanne L Maki & Donald H Lein & Stephanie A Shwiff, 2016. "The Economics of a Successful Raccoon Rabies Elimination Program on Long Island, New York," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia K. & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2010. "Investigating the Role of Poultry in Livelihoods and the Impact of HPAI on Livelihoods Outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 97084, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 514-525, March.
    2. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Funes, José & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 1036, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Chen, Kevin Z. & Diao, Xinshen & Zhang, Yumei, 2010. "Country-level impact of global recession and ChinaÂ’s stimulus package," IFPRI discussion papers 979, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Diao, Xinshen & Zhang, Yumei & Chen, Kevin Z., 2012. "The global recession and China's stimulus package: A general equilibrium assessment of country level impacts," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-17.
    5. Morley, Samuel & Piñeiro, Valeria, 2011. "A regional computable general equilibrium model for Guatemala: Modeling exogenous shocks and policy alternatives," IFPRI discussion papers 1137, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Badiane, Ousmane & Odjo, Sunday & Ulimwengu, John, 2011. "Emerging policies and partnerships under CAADP: Implications for long-term growth, food security, and poverty reduction," IFPRI discussion papers 1145, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Ecker, Olivier, 2011. "Petroleum subsidies in Yemen : leveraging reform for development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5577, The World Bank.
    8. Al Riffai, Perrihan & Breisinger, Clemens & Funes, Jose & Nelson, Gerald & Robertson, Richard & Verner, Dorte & Zhu, Tingju, 2011. "Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1091, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Diao, Xinshen & Nwafor, Manson & Alpuerto, Vida & Akramov, Kamiljon T. & Salau, Sheu, 2010. "Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Nigeria," IFPRI discussion papers 954, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Conference papers 331274, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Riccardo Magnani & Luca Piccoli & Martine Carré & Amedeo Spadaro, 2013. "Would a euro's depreciation improve the French economy?," Working Papers hal-01515823, HAL.
    12. Obeng, Camara Kwasi, 2014. "Impact of import liberalisation on poverty: a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation analysis for Ghana," MPRA Paper 58182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Manfred Wiebelt & Rainer Schweickert & Clemens Breisinger & Marcus Böhme, 2011. "Oil revenues for public investment in Africa: targeting urban or rural areas?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 745-770, November.
    14. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter B. R. & Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2006. "The role of agriculture in development: implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," DSGD discussion papers 29, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Cordier, Mateo & Pérez Agúndez, José A. & Hecq, Walter & Hamaide, Bertrand, 2014. "A guiding framework for ecosystem services monetization in ecological–economic modeling," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 86-96.
    16. Delfin Go & Marna Kearney & Vijdan Korman & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2010. "Wage Subsidy and Labour Market Flexibility in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 1481-1502.
    17. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-01515823 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Waisman, Henri & Rozenberg, Julie & Hourcade, Jean Charles, 2013. "Monetary compensations in climate policy through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment: The case of oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 951-961.
    19. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2009. "Liberalising Trade In South Africa: A Survey Of Computable General Equilibrium Studies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 445-464, September.
    20. Narayanan, Badri G. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Horridge, J. Mark, 2010. "Disaggregated data and trade policy analysis: The value of linking partial and general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 755-766, May.
    21. Wobst, Peter, 2002. "The impact of domestic and global trade liberalization on five Southern African countries," TMD discussion papers 92, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Avian influenza Developing countries; General equilibrium model; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Food safety; Water quality; Water policies;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.