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How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?

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  • Dong He
  • Zhiwei Zhang
  • Wenlang Zhang

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of China's fiscal stimulus package on output and employment. The input–output analysis shows that the package has a multiplier of approximately 0.84 in the short run, generating 18–20 million new jobs in non‐farming sectors in the first year. A dynamic structural model shows that the multiplier is around 1.1 in the medium run as fiscal spending leads to higher household consumption and corporate investment over time. The size of the fiscal multiplier also depends on the cyclical conditions of the economy, the policy environment and the distribution of funds across sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 730-744, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:14:y:2009:i:5:p:730-744
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00480.x
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    1. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2007. "How Efficient Has Been China'S Investment? Empirical Evidence From National And Provincial Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 597-617, December.
    2. Dong He & Zhiwei Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2009. "How Large Will Be The Effect Of China'S Fiscal Stimulus Package On Output And Employment?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 730-744, December.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2010. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 167-199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2002. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity During Recessions in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2002/087, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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