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Structural Change and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations in China and the US

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  • Wen Yao
  • Xiaodong Zhu

Abstract

The correlation between the cyclical components of aggregate employment and GDP is highly positive in the US, but close to zero in China. We argue that the difference in the size of the agricultural sector is the reason for the difference in employment-output correlation. We construct a simple two-sector growth model with productivity shocks and non-homothetic preferences and show that the model can simultaneously account for the long-run structural change and short-run employment fluctuations at sector level and in the aggregate for both economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Yao & Xiaodong Zhu, 2018. "Structural Change and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations in China and the US," Working Papers tecipa-600, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-600
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    2. He, Qing & Tai-Leung Chong, Terence & Shi, Kang, 2009. "What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 650-661, December.
    3. Alessio Moro, 2012. "The Structural Transformation Between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 402-415, July.
    4. Timo Boppart, 2014. "Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts in a Growth Model With Relative Price Effects and Non‐Gorman Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2167-2196, November.
    5. MaCurdy, Thomas E, 1981. "An Empirical Model of Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Setting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1059-1085, December.
    6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    7. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    8. Brandt, Loren & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2010. "Accounting for China's Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 4764, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Fang, Lei & Herrendorf, Berthold, 2021. "High-skilled services and development in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Storesletten, Kjetil & Zhao, Bo & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2020. "Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis’ Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 14964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kjetil Storesletten & Bo Zhao & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2019. "Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2191, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Rubini, Loris & Moro, Alessio, 2019. "Stochastic Structural Change," MPRA Paper 96144, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Change; Non-homothetic Preferences; Labor Reallocation; Aggregate Fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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