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Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity

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  • Beyer, Robert C.M.
  • Jain, Tarun
  • Sinha, Sonalika

Abstract

This paper estimates how strongly COVID-19 containment policies have impacted aggregate economic activity. We use a difference-in-differences methodology to estimate how containment zones of different severity across India impacted district-level nighttime light intensity, as well as household income and consumption. From May to July 2020, nighttime light intensity was 9.1 % lower in districts with the most severe restrictions compared with districts with the least severe restrictions, which could imply between 5.8 % and 6.6 % lower GDP. Nighttime light intensity was only 1.6 % lower in districts with intermediate restrictions. The differences were largest in May during the graded lockdown, and tapered in June and July. Lower house-hold income and consumption corresponding to zone-wise restrictions corroborate these results. Stricter containment measures had larger impacts in districts with greater population density, older residents, and more services employment. The large magnitudes of the findings suggest that governments should carefully consider the economic costs of country-wide pandemic containment policies while weighing the trade-offs against public health benefits. Keywords: Containment policies, COVID-19, Nighttime lights, India

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  • Beyer, Robert C.M. & Jain, Tarun & Sinha, Sonalika, 2023. "Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s104900782300009x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2023.101589
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    Cited by:

    1. Famiglietti, Matthew & Leibovici, Fernando, 2022. "The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Tanika Chakraborty & Anirban Mukherjee, 2023. "Economic geography of contagion: a study of COVID-19 outbreak in India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 779-811, April.
    3. Dhamija, Gaurav & Roychowdhury, Punarjit & Shankar, Binay, 2023. "Urbanization and Women Empowerment: Evidence from India," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1323, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Chakraborty, Tanika & Mukherjee, Anirban, 2022. "Economic geography of contagion: A study on Covid-19 outbreak in India," SocArXiv gp2wr, Center for Open Science.
    5. Babbar, Karan & Dev, Pritha, 2021. "COVID-19 and Period Products Usage among Menstruating Women in Urban and Rural India," IIMA Working Papers WP 2021-11-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    6. Arpit Gupta & Anup Malani & Bartek Woda, 2021. "Explaining the Income and Consumption Effects of COVID in India," NBER Working Papers 28935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 253-285, August.
    8. Chakraborty, Tanika & Mukherjee, Anirban, 2021. "Economic Geography of Contagion: A Study on COVID-19 Outbreak in India," IZA Discussion Papers 14400, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. McSharry, Patrick & Mawejje, Joseph, 2024. "Estimating urban GDP growth using nighttime lights and machine learning techniques in data poor environments: The case of South Sudan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E21; H12; I18;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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