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Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders: Evidence from High-Frequency Claims Data

Author

Listed:
  • ChaeWon Baek

    (Tufts University)

  • Peter B. McCrory

    (J.P. Morgan Chase)

  • Todd Messer

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Preston Mui

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

We use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of stay-at-home (SAH) orders in the United States to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and April 4, only 4 million were attributable to SAH orders. We present a currency union model to provide conditions for mapping this estimate to aggregate employment losses.

Suggested Citation

  • ChaeWon Baek & Peter B. McCrory & Todd Messer & Preston Mui, 2021. "Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders: Evidence from High-Frequency Claims Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 979-993, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:5:p:979-993
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00996
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    Cited by:

    1. John Gibson & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "A synthetic control analysis of U.S. state level COVID-19 stay-at-home orders on new jobless claims," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    3. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2022. "The political economy of early COVID-19 interventions in US states," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Barrot, Jean-Noël & Bonelli, Maxime & Grassi, Basile & Sauvagnat, Julien, 2024. "Causal effects of closing businesses in a pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2023. "Sudden lockdown repeals, social mobility, and COVID‐19: Evidence from a judicial natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 272-304, June.
    6. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Jain, Tarun & Sinha, Sonalika, 2023. "Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Ludmila Fadejeva & Boriss Siliverstovs & Karlis Vilerts & Anete Brinke, 2022. "Consumer Spending in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Card Transactions in Latvia," Discussion Papers 2022/01, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Köhler, Timothy & Bhorat, Haroon & Hill, Robert & Stanwix, Benjamin, 2023. "Lockdown stringency and employment formality: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 57, pages 1-3.
    9. Ghassibe, Mishel & Zanetti, Francesco, 2022. "State dependence of fiscal multipliers: the source of fluctuations matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-23.
    10. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2023. "Did Job Retention Schemes Save Jobs during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Firm-level Evidence from Latvia," Working Papers 2023/03, Latvijas Banka.
    11. Auerbach, Alan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & McCrory, Peter B. & Murphy, Daniel, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Hong, Sunmin & Jeong, Dohyo & Kim, Pyung, 2024. "Have offender demographics changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from money mules in South Korea," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Karen X. Yan, 2023. "How do the stay-at-home (SAH) orders affect air quality? Evidence from the northeastern USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2085-2103, May.
    15. Felix Roth & Lars Jonung & Aisada Most, 2024. "COVID-19 and public support for the Euro," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 61-86, February.
    16. Gu, Ran & Zhong, Ling, 2023. "Effects of stay-at-home orders on skill requirements in vacancy postings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Gordon Betcherman & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Ioannis Laliotis & Ioanna Pantelaiou & Mauro Testaverde & Giannis Tzimas, 2023. "The short-term impact of the 2020 pandemic lockdown on employment in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1273-1307, September.
    18. Ege Aksu & Prabal K. De & Laxman Timilsina, 2024. "New evidence on the health and employment effects of non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions on workers in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2771-2819, December.
    19. Grace Armijos-Bravo & Segundo Camino-Mogro, 2023. "Covid-19 Lockdown in Ecuador: Are there Gender Differences in Unemployment?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(6), pages 833-853, June.
    20. Lee, Sang Yoon(Tim), 2022. "The political economy of early COVID-19 interventions in U.S. states: Comment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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