IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v75y2021ics1049007821000567.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Chunding
  • Lin, Xin

Abstract

This paper uses 2018 data as a benchmark to build a numerical 26-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost and an endogenous trade imbalance structure. We assume that COVID-19 will increase the trade cost between countries and decrease labor supply in production. We use China’s trade data from January to April in 2020 to calibrate the influence level parameters and then simulate the trade effects of COVID-19 in China, the EU, the US, and the world. Our simulation results find that all countries’ trade and exports will be significantly hurt by the pandemic. Due to the trade diversion effect and the price growth effect, some countries will see an increase in import trade. Comparatively, the pandemic has the most negative impact on global trade, followed by the EU, the US, and China. As the pandemic deepens, the negative impact on trade will increase. The worldwide pandemic has the most significant impact on US trade, with an effect about 1.5 times that of the average world effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Chunding & Lin, Xin, 2021. "COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:75:y:2021:i:c:s1049007821000567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007821000567
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101327?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    2. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2004. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 113-131.
    3. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2014. "China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 169-192, February.
    4. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    5. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    8. Donald Hanna & Yiping Huang, 2004. "The Impact of SARS on Asian Economies," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 102-112.
    9. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, January.
    10. George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2010. "H1N1 influenza in Australia and its macroeconomic effects," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-212, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Wen Hai & Zhong Zhao & Jian Wang & Zhen-Gang Hou, 2004. "The Short-Term Impact of SARS on the Chinese Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 57-61.
    13. Alan Siu & Y. C. Richard Wong, 2004. "Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 62-83.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hancock, Mary Everett & Mora, Jesse, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
    3. Dongmin KONG & Chen LIU & Mengxu XIONG, 2024. "COVID-19 and Firm Response: Evidence from China," Working Papers DP-2023-29, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    2. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    3. Alina Butu & Ioan Sebastian Brumă & Lucian Tanasă & Steliana Rodino & Codrin Dinu Vasiliu & Sebastian Doboș & Marian Butu, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Crisis upon the Consumer Buying Behavior of Fresh Vegetables Directly from Local Producers. Case Study: The Quarantined Area of Suceava County, Romania," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Nashwan M. A. Saif & Jianping Ruan & Bojan Obrenovic, 2021. "Sustaining Trade during COVID-19 Pandemic: Establishing a Conceptual Model Including COVID-19 Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.
    8. Chang Ma & John Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2023. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2098-2130.
    9. Huan Wang & Sarah‐Eve Dill & Huan Zhou & Yue Ma & Hao Xue & Sean Sylvia & Kumi Smith & Matthew Boswell & Alexis Medina & Prashant Loyalka & Cody Abby & Dimitris Friesen & Nathan Rose & Yian Guo & Scot, 2021. "Health, economic, and social implications of COVID‐19 for China's rural population," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 495-504, May.
    10. Martin Motl, 2020. "Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - April 2020, pages 12-24, Czech National Bank.
    11. Smith, Richard D., 2006. "Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(12), pages 3113-3123, December.
    12. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Eppinger, Peter S. & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2020. "Covid-19 shocking global value chains," Kiel Working Papers 2167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Ambrocio, Gene & Juselius, Mikael, 2020. "Dealing with the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic – what are the fiscal options?," BoF Economics Review 2/2020, Bank of Finland.
    16. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    17. Christian Dreger & Daniel Gros, 2021. "Lockdowns and the US Unemployment Crisis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 449-463, October.
    18. Dey, Asim K. & Hoque, G.M. Toufiqul & Das, Kumer P. & Panovska, Irina, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    19. Chuantian He & Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2018. "General equilibrium trade modelling with Canada–US transportation costs," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 806-829, October.
    20. Laeven, Luc, 2022. "Pandemics, intermediate goods, and corporate valuation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; General equilibrium; Trade effects; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:75:y:2021:i:c:s1049007821000567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.