IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v88y2011i12p4607-4620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using size distribution analysis to forecast natural gas resources in Asia Pacific

Author

Listed:
  • Aguilera, Roberto F.
  • Ripple, Ronald D.

Abstract

Increasing energy consumption in Asia Pacific will largely be met by fossil fuels. Natural gas production in the region presently ranks behind that of oil and coal. However, the abundance of gas could lead to a significant gas market share increase in the energy mix. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the total endowment of conventional gas in Asia Pacific. This is carried out with a Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) model that forecasts volumes in provinces that have not been previously evaluated. The endowment is then distributed across countries to show where volumes are most likely to be found. A breakdown between offshore versus onshore resources is also estimated. The results of the analysis show there is a significant gas endowment. The estimated distribution across countries and onshore/offshore areas provides insight into the relative economics of gas production, as well as a basis for potential investment decisions. With appropriate energy policies, it may be possible to tap the vast gas potential in Asia Pacific. Considering gas may be the most abundant, inexpensive, and clean fossil fuel, the outcome would be increased energy security and a low carbon economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguilera, Roberto F. & Ripple, Ronald D., 2011. "Using size distribution analysis to forecast natural gas resources in Asia Pacific," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4607-4620.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:12:p:4607-4620
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911003709
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.05.057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Lagos C.C. Gustavo & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1), pages 141-174, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    2. Ding, Song, 2018. "A novel self-adapting intelligent grey model for forecasting China's natural-gas demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 393-407.
    3. Zou, Youqin & Yang, Changbing & Wu, Daishe & Yan, Chun & Zeng, Masun & Lan, Yingying & Dai, Zhenxue, 2016. "Probabilistic assessment of shale gas production and water demand at Xiuwu Basin in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 185-195.
    4. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2014. "The role of natural gas in a low carbon Asia Pacific," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1795-1800.
    5. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Inchauspe, Julian & Ripple, Ronald D., 2014. "The Asia Pacific natural gas market: Large enough for all?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-6.
    6. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Ripple, Ronald D., 2013. "Modeling primary energy substitution in the Asia Pacific," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 219-224.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Huppmann and Franziska Holz, 2012. "Crude Oil Market Power—A Shift in Recent Years?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    2. Langer, Lissy & Huppmann, Daniel & Holz, Franziska, 2016. "Lifting the US crude oil export ban: A numerical partial equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 258-266.
    3. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.
    4. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    5. Macías, Arturo & Matilla-García, Mariano, 2015. "Net energy analysis in a Ramsey–Hotelling growth model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 562-573.
    6. Li, Shuping & Li, Jianfeng & Lu, Xinsheng & Sun, Yihong, 2022. "Exploring the dynamic nonlinear relationship between crude oil price and implied volatility indices: A new perspective from MMV-MFDFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    7. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    8. van Ruijven, Bas & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4797-4808, November.
    9. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2016. "Imperfect cartelization in OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 333-344.
    10. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2010. "The future of the European natural gas market: A quantitative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3332-3339.
    11. Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & Ejaz, Qudsia J. & Morris, Jennifer & O'Sullivan, Francis & Rausch, Sebastian & Winchester, Niven & Kragha, Oghenerume, 2011. "The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5309-5321, September.
    12. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2012. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, December.
    13. Bhoi, P.R. & Ouedraogo, A.S. & Soloiu, V. & Quirino, R., 2020. "Recent advances on catalysts for improving hydrocarbon compounds in bio-oil of biomass catalytic pyrolysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Wetzstein, M. & Wetzstein, H., 2011. "Four myths surrounding U.S. biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4308-4312, July.
    15. Aguilera, Roberto F., 2009. "Oil supply in Central and South America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2916-2925, August.
    16. Greene, David L. & Liu, Changzheng, 2015. "U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 126-137.
    17. Berk, Istemi & Çam, Eren, 2020. "The shift in global crude oil market structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    18. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Radetzki, Marian, 2017. "The synchronized and exceptional price performance of oil and gold: Explanations and prospects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-87.
    19. Giannousakis, Anastasis & Hilaire, Jérôme & Nemet, Gregory F. & Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Rodrigues, Renato & Baumstark, Lavinia & Kriegler, Elmar, 2021. "How uncertainty in technology costs and carbon dioxide removal availability affect climate mitigation pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Ripple, Ronald D., 2012. "Technological progress and the availability of European oil and gas resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 387-392.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:12:p:4607-4620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.