IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v170y2024ics0304387824000397.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic development and known natural resource endowment: Discovery rate differentials of oil

Author

Listed:
  • Hamang, Jonas

Abstract

The location of oil reserves plays an essential role in policymakers’ incentives to coordinate supply-side climate policy. In this paper I use data on the location of all historic onshore petroleum discoveries to establish a new stylized fact: Economically developed areas are many times more likely to contain an oil or gas discovery, compared to undeveloped areas. I show that this result is not driven reverse causality or confounding geology. By implication, there exist large additional undiscovered oil and gas deposits in currently undeveloped areas, mainly located outside of Europe and North America. I quantify these deposits to be about 40% of total discovered onshore oil reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamang, Jonas, 2024. "Economic development and known natural resource endowment: Discovery rate differentials of oil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:170:y:2024:i:c:s0304387824000397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103290
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387824000397
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103290?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    2. Nathan Nunn & Diego Puga, 2012. "Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 20-36, February.
    3. Elias Papaioannou, 2014. "National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 151-213.
    4. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    5. Rebelo, Sérgio & Krusell, Per & Bornstein, Gideon, 2017. "Lags, Costs and Shocks: An Equilibrium Model of the Oil Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 12047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Redding, Stephen J. & Turner, Matthew A., 2015. "Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1339-1398, Elsevier.
    7. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    8. Robert T. Deacon, 1994. "Deforestation and the Rule of Law in a Cross-Section of Countries," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 70(4), pages 414-430.
    9. Gordon B. Dahl & Andreas Ravndal Kostøl & Magne Mogstad, 2014. "Family Welfare Cultures," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1711-1752.
    10. John Asker & Allan Collard-Wexler & Jan De Loecker, 2019. "(Mis)Allocation, Market Power, and Global Oil Extraction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1568-1615, April.
    11. Remi Jedwab & Edward Kerby & Alexander Moradi, 2017. "History, Path Dependence and Development: Evidence from Colonial Railways, Settlers and Cities in Kenya," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1467-1494, August.
    12. Casey, Gregory & Klemp, Marc, 2021. "Historical instruments and contemporary endogenous regressors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Jørgen J. Andersen & Jonas H. Hamang & Michael L. Ross, 2022. "Declining Oil Production Leads to More Democratic Governments," Working Papers 620, Center for Global Development.
    14. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    15. J Vernon Henderson & Tim Squires & Adam Storeygard & David Weil, 2018. "The Global Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade1," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 357-406.
    16. Lassi Ahlvik & Jørgen Juel Andersen & Jonas Hveding Hamang & Torfinn Harding, 2022. "Quantifying supply-side climate policies," Working Papers No 01/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    17. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    18. J. Vernon Henderson, 1996. "Ways to Think about Urban Concentration: Neoclassical Urban Systems versus the New Economic Geography," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 19(1-2), pages 31-36, April.
    19. Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Mata & Frederik Toscani, 2019. "Winning the oil lottery: the impact of natural resource extraction on growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-115, March.
    20. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    21. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History and Industry Location: The Case of the Manufacturing Belt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 80-83, May.
    22. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    23. Maryann Feldman, 1999. "The New Economics Of Innovation, Spillovers And Agglomeration: Areview Of Empirical Studies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 5-25.
    24. Edward L. Glaeser & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "The Geographic Concentration of Industry: Does Natural Advantage Explain Agglomeration?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 311-316, May.
    25. Frode Martin Nordvik, 2019. "Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1425-1456.
    26. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Cursed by Resources or Institutions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(8), pages 1117-1131, August.
    27. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2745-2778. is not listed on IDEAS
    28. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2019. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1205-1237.
    29. Robert T. Deacon & Henning Bohn, 2000. "Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 526-549, June.
    30. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    31. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Lagos C.C. Gustavo & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1), pages 141-174, January.
    32. McGlade, C.E., 2012. "A review of the uncertainties in estimates of global oil resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 262-270.
    33. J Herbst, 2000. "Economic incentives, natural resources and conflict in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(3), pages 270-294.
    34. Gradstein, Mark & Klemp, Marc, 2020. "Natural resource access and local economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    35. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2015. "History and the Sizes of Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 558-563, May.
    36. James Cust & Torfinn Harding, 2020. "Institutions and the Location of Oil Exploration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1321-1350.
    37. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    38. David, Paul A & Wright, Gavin, 1997. "Increasing Returns and the Genesis of American Resource Abundance," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 6(2), pages 203-245, March.
    39. Alberto F. Ades & Edward L. Glaeser, 1995. "Trade and Circuses: Explaining Urban Giants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 195-227.
    40. Traviss Cassidy, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Oil Wealth on Development: Evidence from Petroleum Geology," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2745-2778.
    41. Jørgen Juel Andersen & Frode Martin Nordvik & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Oil Price Shocks and Conflict Escalation: Onshore versus Offshore," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(2), pages 327-356, February.
    42. Southgate, Douglas & Sierra, Rodrigo & Brown, Lawrence, 1991. "The causes of tropical deforestation in Ecuador: A statistical analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(9), pages 1145-1151, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jonas Hveding Hamang, 2022. "Local economic development and oil discoveries," Working Papers No 03/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    4. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2019. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1205-1237.
    5. Konte, Maty & Vincent, Rose Camille, 2021. "Mining and quality of public services: The role of local governance and decentralization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Perez-Sebastian, Fidel & Raveh, Ohad & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Oil discoveries and protectionism: Role of news effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Pushing one’s luck: Petroleum ownership and discoveries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Richard Bluhm & Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley C. Parks & Austin M. Strange & Michael J. Tierney, 2020. "Connective Financing - Chinese Infrastructure Projects and the Diffusion of Economic Activity in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8344, CESifo.
    9. Mamo, Nemera & Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Moradi, Alexander, 2019. "Intensive and extensive margins of mining and development: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-49.
    10. Ongo Nkoa, Bruno Emmanuel & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Njangang, Henri, 2023. "Rich in the dark: Natural resources and energy poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. de Soysa, Indra & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2022. "Oil and property rights," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 79, pages 1-13.
    12. Le Clech, Néstor A., 2024. "Policy market orientation, property rights, and corruption effects on the rent of non-renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Zuo, Na & Zhong, Hua, 2020. "Can resource policy reverse the resource curse? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Amarasinghe, Ashani & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Zenou, Yves, 2024. "Key players in economic development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 40-56.
    15. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries," Working Papers 698, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. Philip Roessler & Yannick I Pengi & Robert Marty & Kyle Sorlie Titlow & Nicolas Van de Walle, 2020. "The Cash Crop Revolution, Colonialism and Legacies of Spatial Inequality: Evidence from Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Bensch, Gunther & Gotz, Gunnar & Peters, Jörg, 2020. "Effects of rural electrification on employment: A comment on Dinkelman (2011)," Ruhr Economic Papers 840, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Ralph de Haas & Steven Poelhekke, 2016. "Mining Matters: Natural Resource Extraction and Local Business Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 6198, CESifo.
    19. Dickinson, Jeffrey, 2020. "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles: What Drives Human-Made Light?," MPRA Paper 103504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Kotsadam, Andreas & Tolonen, Anja, 2016. "African Mining, Gender, and Local Employment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 325-339.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:170:y:2024:i:c:s0304387824000397. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.