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Solar-energy potential in Turkey

Author

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  • Sözen, Adnan
  • Arcaklioglu, Erol
  • Özalp, Mehmet
  • Kanit, E. Galip

Abstract

In this study, a new formula based on meteorological and geographical data was developed to determine the solar-energy potential in Turkey using artificial neural-networks (ANNs). Scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) learning algorithms and a logistic sigmoid transfer function were used in the network. Meteorological data for the last four years (2000Â -->Â 2003) from 18 cities (Bilecik, KIrsehir, Akhisar, Bingöl, Batman, Bodrum, Uzunköprü, Sile, BartIn, Yalova, Horasan, PolatlI, Malazgirt, Köycegiz, Manavgat, Dörtyol, Karatas and Birecik) spread over Turkey were used as data in order to train the neural network. Meteorological and geographical data (latitude, longitude, altitude, month, mean sunshine duration, and mean temperature) were used in the input layer of the network. Solar radiation is the output layer. One-month test data for each city was used, and these months data were not used for training. The results show that the maximum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was found to be 3.448% and the R2 value 0.9987 for PolatlI. The best approach was found for KIrsehir (MAPE=1.2257, R2=0.9998). The MAPE and R2 for the testing data were 3.3477 and 0.998534, respectively. The ANN models show greater accuracy for evaluating solar-resource possibilities in regions where a network of monitoring stations has not been established in Turkey. This study confirms the ability of the ANN to predict solar-radiation values precisely.

Suggested Citation

  • Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özalp, Mehmet & Kanit, E. Galip, 2005. "Solar-energy potential in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 367-381, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:80:y:2005:i:4:p:367-381
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Kumar, Rajesh & Aggarwal, R.K. & Sharma, J.D., 2015. "Comparison of regression and artificial neural network models for estimation of global solar radiations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1294-1299.
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    18. Yüksel, Ibrahim, 2008. "Global warming and renewable energy sources for sustainable development in Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 802-812.
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    21. Hasan Eroğlu, 2022. "Development of a novel solar energy need index for identifying priority investment regions: a case study and current status in Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8840-8855, June.
    22. Linares-Rodríguez, Alvaro & Ruiz-Arias, José Antonio & Pozo-Vázquez, David & Tovar-Pescador, Joaquín, 2011. "Generation of synthetic daily global solar radiation data based on ERA-Interim reanalysis and artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5356-5365.
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