Evaluating the feasibility of concentrated solar power as a replacement for coal-fired power in China: A comprehensive comparative analysis

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is considered one of the promising emerging clean renewable power generation technologies with the potential to replace coal-fired power (CFP). However, the feasibility of CSP as a replacement for CFP has not been systematically and scientifically analyzed, hindering its positioning and future development, and complicating energy transition decision-making by policymakers. To address this issue, this paper proposes a comprehensive framework to thoroughly compare CSP and CFP from multiple perspectives, including industry and technology development status, as well as single and hybrid technology potentials. This framework considers the comprehensive influences of China's geography, policy, and economy, and analyzes land suitability, technical installed capacity and generation capacity, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) spatial distribution characteristics from geographical, technical, and economic aspects. Comparative results show that, despite CSP having 2.06 million km2 available for construction and a generational potential 7.58 to 18.22 times the current national generation, its economically advantageous and technically feasible areas cover only 237,030 km2 (11.51 % of available land), hindering its widespread adoption as a CFP alternative. To address this, this paper proposes a practical hybrid technology assessment scheme, further comparing promising hybrid CSP-PV and hybrid CFP-Wind systems. Results indicate that hybrid CSP-PV systems increase high-quality regions by 19.79 %, covering 3.5 million km2 with lower LCOE than hybrid CFP-Wind, marking a 226.19 % increase. The economically advantageous and technically feasible areas exceed 585,020 km2, a 146.81 % increase compared to standalone CSP. Overall, the study demonstrates that hybrid CSP-PV systems offer significant economic and technical advantages, making them a competitive option for CFP substitution. However, the costs of standalone CSP systems remain considerably higher than those of CFP generation. To improve the feasibility of CSP as a CFP alternative, this paper provides targeted policy recommendations aimed at advancing CSP industry growth, fostering technological innovation, and enhancing market infrastructure.