Detailed spatial analysis of renewables’ potential and heat: A study of Groningen Province in the northern Netherlands

Spatially sensitive regional renewables’ potentials are greatly influenced by existing land-use claims and related spatial and environmental policies. Similarly, heat particularly related to low-temperature demand applications in the built environment (BE) is highly spatially explicit. This study developed an analytical approach for a detailed spatial analysis of future solar PV, onshore wind, biomass, and geothermal and industrial waste heat potentials at a regional level and applied in the Dutch Province of Groningen. We included spatial policies, various spatial claims, and other land-use constraints in developing renewable scenarios for 2030 and 2050. We simultaneously considered major spatial claims and multiple renewable energy sources. Claims considered are the BE, agriculture, forest, nature, and network and energy infrastructure, with each connected to social, ecological, environmental, technical, economic, and policy-related constraints. Heat demand was further analyzed by creating highly granular demand density maps, comparing them with regional heat supply potential, and identifying the economic feasibility of heat networks. We analyzed the possibilities of combining multiple renewables on the same land. The 2050 renewable scenarios results ranged 2–66 PJ for solar PV and 0–48 PJ for onshore wind and biomass ranged 3.5–25 PJ for both 2030 and 2050. These large ranges of potentials show the significant impact of spatial constraints and underline the need for understanding how they shape future energy policies. The heat demand density map shows that future heat networks are feasible in large population centers. Our approach is pragmatic and replicable in other regions, subject to data availability.